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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Ath Madrid

S S T T S

2–0

Full-time

Villarreal

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

54%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

25%

54%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

54%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 2. · Villarreal 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	17	6	2	+40	57
2	Ath Madrid	24	13	8	3	+17	47
3	Real Madrid	24	14	3	7	+12	45
4	Getafe	25	10	9	6	+10	39
5	Sevilla	25	10	7	8	+8	37
6	Alaves	25	10	7	8	-3	37
7	Sociedad	24	9	7	8	+5	34
8	Valencia	25	6	15	4	+4	33
9	Betis	24	9	6	9	-3	33
10	Ath Bilbao	25	7	12	6	-3	33
11	Eibar	25	7	10	8	-2	31
12	Leganes	25	7	9	9	-5	30
13	Levante	24	8	6	10	-7	30
14	Espanol	25	8	6	11	-10	30
15	Girona	24	6	9	9	-9	27
16	Valladolid	24	6	8	10	-10	26
17	Celta	25	6	7	12	-7	25
18	Villarreal	24	4	11	9	-5	23
19	Vallecano	25	6	5	14	-15	23
20	Huesca	25	4	7	14	-17	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	9	3	1	+24	30
2	Ath Madrid	12	9	2	1	+13	29
3	Real Madrid	12	8	1	3	+12	25
4	Sevilla	12	7	3	2	+10	24
5	Eibar	13	6	5	2	+9	23
6	Alaves	12	6	5	1	+6	23
7	Getafe	12	7	1	4	+10	22
8	Betis	13	6	4	3	+2	22
9	Espanol	12	7	1	4	-1	22
10	Leganes	12	5	6	1	+6	21
11	Ath Bilbao	13	5	6	2	+1	21
12	Valencia	13	3	9	1	+6	18
13	Sociedad	12	4	4	4	+2	16
14	Celta	13	4	4	5	+1	16
15	Levante	11	4	3	4	-4	15
16	Vallecano	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Villarreal	13	2	6	5	-1	12
18	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-3	12
19	Girona	12	2	5	5	-7	11
20	Huesca	12	2	4	6	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+16	27
2	Real Madrid	12	6	2	4	+0	20
3	Ath Madrid	12	4	6	2	+4	18
4	Sociedad	12	5	3	4	+3	18
5	Getafe	13	3	8	2	+0	17
6	Girona	12	4	4	4	-2	16
7	Valencia	12	3	6	3	-2	15
8	Levante	13	4	3	6	-3	15
9	Valladolid	13	3	5	5	-7	14
10	Alaves	13	4	2	7	-9	14
11	Sevilla	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Ath Bilbao	12	2	6	4	-4	12
13	Villarreal	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Betis	11	3	2	6	-5	11
15	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-8	10
16	Celta	12	2	3	7	-8	9
17	Leganes	13	2	3	8	-11	9
18	Huesca	13	2	3	8	-13	9
19	Espanol	13	1	5	7	-9	8
20	Eibar	12	1	5	6	-11	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.