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Bundesliga

Referee: Christian Dingert

Dortmund

S S U U U

3–2

Full-time

Leverkusen

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 59%

68%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

68%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

59%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

33% Possession 67%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 1. · Leverkusen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	22	15	6	1	+31	51
2	Bayern Munich	23	16	3	4	+25	51
3	M'gladbach	23	13	4	6	+17	43
4	RB Leipzig	22	12	5	5	+22	41
5	Wolfsburg	23	11	5	7	+8	38
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	10	7	6	+16	37
7	Leverkusen	22	11	3	8	+7	36
8	Hoffenheim	22	8	9	5	+12	33
9	Werder Bremen	23	8	8	7	+4	32
10	Hertha	23	8	8	7	+2	32
11	Mainz	23	8	6	9	-10	30
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	23	8	4	11	-15	28
13	Freiburg	23	6	9	8	-4	27
14	Schalke 04	23	6	5	12	-10	23
15	Augsburg	23	4	6	13	-13	18
16	Stuttgart	23	4	4	15	-32	16
17	Hannover	23	3	5	15	-30	14
18	Nurnberg	23	2	7	14	-30	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	9	2	0	+22	29
2	M'gladbach	11	9	0	2	+16	27
3	RB Leipzig	11	7	3	1	+17	24
4	Bayern Munich	11	7	3	1	+11	24
5	Leverkusen	11	6	1	4	+2	19
6	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+1	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+10	18
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Hoffenheim	12	4	5	3	+6	17
10	Freiburg	12	4	5	3	+4	17
11	Werder Bremen	12	4	5	3	+3	17
12	Hertha	11	4	5	2	+2	17
13	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	-1	15
14	Schalke 04	11	4	1	6	-3	13
15	Nurnberg	12	2	5	5	-4	11
16	Stuttgart	11	3	2	6	-12	11
17	Augsburg	11	2	4	5	+0	10
18	Hannover	12	3	1	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	0	3	+14	27
2	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+9	23
3	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	22
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+6	19
5	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+5	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	5	2	4	+5	17
7	Hoffenheim	10	4	4	2	+6	16
8	M'gladbach	12	4	4	4	+1	16
9	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Hertha	12	4	3	5	+0	15
11	Mainz	11	3	2	6	-11	11
12	Schalke 04	12	2	4	6	-7	10
13	Freiburg	11	2	4	5	-8	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	4	5	-14	10
15	Augsburg	12	2	2	8	-13	8
16	Stuttgart	12	1	2	9	-20	5
17	Hannover	11	0	4	7	-18	4
18	Nurnberg	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.