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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Toulouse

T U T U U

1–1

Full-time

Marseille

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 0

2 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 17. · Marseille 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+10	17
2	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+6	12
5	Reims	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Angers	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Caen	7	4	0	3	-2	12
8	Nice	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Guingamp	7	3	0	4	-4	9
11	Monaco	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Marseille	6	2	1	3	+5	7
13	Lille	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Bastia	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Bordeaux	7	1	4	2	-4	7
16	Nantes	6	2	1	3	-4	7
17	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
18	Troyes	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	7	0	2	5	-7	2
20	Montpellier	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+8	7
2	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Reims	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
8	Bastia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
12	Caen	3	2	0	1	-2	6
13	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Bordeaux	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	St Etienne	4	3	0	1	+2	9
3	Lyon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Lorient	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Lille	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Bordeaux	4	0	3	1	-5	3
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Bastia	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.