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Ligue 1

Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles

Lille

U S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 24%

30%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

20%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

40%

57%

Average goals

1,6

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

6 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 9. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	24	5	1	+62	77
2	Monaco	30	13	13	4	+10	52
3	Rennes	31	12	12	7	+9	48
4	Nice	30	13	8	9	+10	47
5	Lyon	30	13	7	10	+14	46
6	St Etienne	31	13	6	12	+2	45
7	Nantes	30	11	11	8	+1	44
8	Caen	30	13	4	13	-7	43
9	Lille	30	9	13	8	+1	40
10	Marseille	31	8	15	8	+6	39
11	Lorient	30	9	12	9	-1	39
12	Angers	30	10	9	11	-2	39
13	Bastia	30	11	6	13	-3	39
14	Bordeaux	30	9	11	10	-10	38
15	Montpellier	31	10	6	15	-2	36
16	Guingamp	30	9	8	13	-9	35
17	Reims	30	8	9	13	-9	33
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	30	7	12	11	-9	33
19	Toulouse	30	5	11	14	-16	26
20	Troyes	30	2	8	20	-47	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+32	36
2	Lyon	15	9	3	3	+18	30
3	Bastia	16	9	2	5	+8	29
4	Monaco	15	7	6	2	+8	27
5	St Etienne	15	8	3	4	+8	27
6	Nice	15	8	2	5	+6	26
7	Bordeaux	15	7	5	3	+6	26
8	Nantes	15	7	5	3	+5	26
9	Lille	15	7	4	4	+6	25
10	Lorient	15	6	6	3	+7	24
11	Guingamp	15	6	5	4	+6	23
12	Caen	15	7	2	6	-5	23
13	Angers	15	5	7	3	+3	22
14	Rennes	15	5	6	4	+2	21
15	Montpellier	16	7	0	9	+0	21
16	Reims	15	5	5	5	+3	20
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	15	4	7	4	-2	19
18	Toulouse	15	3	7	5	+2	16
19	Marseille	16	2	9	5	+2	15
20	Troyes	15	0	6	9	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+30	41
2	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+7	27
3	Monaco	15	6	7	2	+2	25
4	Marseille	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	21
6	Caen	15	6	2	7	-2	20
7	Nantes	15	4	6	5	-4	18
8	St Etienne	16	5	3	8	-6	18
9	Angers	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Lyon	15	4	4	7	-4	16
11	Montpellier	15	3	6	6	-2	15
12	Lille	15	2	9	4	-5	15
13	Lorient	15	3	6	6	-8	15
14	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	15	3	5	7	-7	14
15	Reims	15	3	4	8	-12	13
16	Guingamp	15	3	3	9	-15	12
17	Bordeaux	15	2	6	7	-16	12
18	Bastia	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-18	10
20	Troyes	15	2	2	11	-26	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.