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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Sp Lisbon

S S U T S

5–1

Full-time

Arouca

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,3

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 56%

73%

38%

Points per game

2,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

54%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

72% Possession 28%

18 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 9

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	26	21	1	4	+52	64
2	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+35	62
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+29	58
4	Sp Braga	26	13	8	5	+22	47
5	Arouca	26	10	11	5	+8	41
6	Rio Ave	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	26	9	8	9	+0	35
8	Guimaraes	26	8	10	8	-4	34
9	Estoril	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Belenenses	26	8	8	10	-18	32
11	Nacional	26	8	7	11	-7	31
12	Maritimo	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	26	6	10	10	-11	28
14	Moreirense	26	7	6	13	-13	27
15	U. Madeira	26	6	7	13	-17	25
16	Boavista	26	6	6	14	-13	24
17	Academica	26	5	8	13	-18	23
18	Tondela	26	3	4	19	-25	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	11	0	2	+30	33
2	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	3	1	+14	30
4	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+22	27
5	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
6	Arouca	13	6	4	3	+6	22
7	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Nacional	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
11	Academica	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	3	5	+3	18
13	Guimaraes	14	4	5	5	+1	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	8	3	-7	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Porto	13	8	2	3	+12	26
4	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Arouca	13	4	7	2	+2	19
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
7	Guimaraes	12	4	5	3	-5	17
8	Moreirense	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
12	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
13	Estoril	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-11	8
17	U. Madeira	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Academica	13	0	4	9	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.