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Bundesliga
Referee: Knut Kircher
Hamburg
U U T S T
1–3
Full-time
Hoffenheim
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 25%
31%
19%
Points per game
1,2
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
50%
46%
Both score Ø 58%
54%
62%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

61% Possession 39%
26 Shots 14
11 Shots on target 9
5 Blocked shots 0
6 Goalkeeper saves 10
10 Corners 3
5 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hamburg 12. · Hoffenheim 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 3 2 +51 66
2 Dortmund 26 19 4 3 +36 61
3 Hertha 26 13 6 7 +9 45
4 Schalke 04 27 13 5 9 +4 44
5 M'gladbach 27 13 3 11 +10 42
6 Mainz 26 12 4 10 +2 40
7 Leverkusen 26 11 6 9 +4 39
8 Wolfsburg 26 10 7 9 +5 37
9 FC Koln 26 8 9 9 -5 33
10 FC Ingolstadt 04 26 8 9 9 -7 33
11 Stuttgart 26 9 5 12 -9 32
12 Hamburg 26 8 7 11 -5 31
13 Augsburg 26 6 9 11 -8 27
14 Darmstadt 26 6 9 11 -13 27
15 Werder Bremen 26 7 6 13 -18 27
16 Ein Frankfurt 26 5 9 12 -15 24
17 Hoffenheim 26 5 9 12 -15 24
18 Hannover 26 5 2 19 -26 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Oct -15 Hoffenheim – Hamburg 0–1

Match report

Hamburg Hoffenheim
René Adler 🟨
19′
20′
A. Kramarić 0–1
23′
K. Volland 0–2
S. Rudy
1–2 A. Hunt
30′
Matthias Ostrzolek 🟨
35′
Half-time 1–2
49′
🟨 Pavel Kadeřábek
S. Schipplock 🔁
↦ M. Gregoritsch
61′
62′
🔁 E. Vargas
↦ A. Kramarić
67′
E. Vargas 1–3
K. Volland
P. Lasogga 🔁
↦ A. Rudņevs
68′
68′
🔁 P. Ochs
↦ N. Amiri
Lewis Holtby 🟨
70′
N. Bahoui 🔁
↦ L. Holtby
76′
86′
🔁 F. Schär
↦ T. Strobl
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Hamburg

15 R. Adler
4 E. Spahić D
24 G. Sakai D
22 M. Ostrzolek M
3 Cleber Reis D
7 I. Iličević M
14 A. Hunt M
20 A. Ekdal M
8 L. Holtby M
16 A. Rudņevs F
23 M. Gregoritsch M
Bench (7)
9 S. Schipplock
10 P. Lasogga
21 N. Bahoui
2 D. Diekmeier
28 G. Jung
1 J. Drobný
40 G. Kačar

Hoffenheim

1 O. Baumann G
12 T. Strobl M
4 E. Bičakčić D
3 P. Kaderábek M
15 J. Toljan D
25 N. Süle D
6 S. Rudy M
18 N. Amiri M
27 A. Kramarić F
31 K. Volland F
19 M. Uth F
Bench (7)
9 E. Vargas
30 P. Ochs
5 F. Schär
33 A. Stolz
34 B. Atik
8 E. Polanski
17 S. Zuber

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Knut Kircher · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
2,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.