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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Swansea

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-2,2

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 19%

27%

10%

Points per game

1,1

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 16. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	31	19	9	3	+23	66
2	Tottenham	30	16	10	4	+29	58
3	Arsenal	30	16	7	7	+18	55
4	Man City	29	15	6	8	+21	51
5	West Ham	30	13	11	6	+12	50
6	Man United	29	13	8	8	+10	47
7	Stoke	31	13	7	11	-3	46
8	Southampton	30	12	8	10	+8	44
9	Liverpool	28	12	8	8	+6	44
10	Chelsea	30	10	11	9	+4	41
11	West Brom	30	10	9	11	-7	39
12	Everton	29	9	11	9	+10	38
13	Bournemouth	30	10	8	12	-9	38
14	Watford	30	10	7	13	-2	37
15	Crystal Palace	30	9	6	15	-8	33
16	Swansea	30	8	9	13	-10	33
17	Norwich	31	7	7	17	-22	28
18	Sunderland	29	6	7	16	-19	25
19	Newcastle	29	6	6	17	-26	24
20	Aston Villa	30	3	7	20	-35	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	9	5	1	+10	32
2	Man City	15	10	1	4	+22	31
3	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+15	29
4	Man United	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	West Ham	14	7	5	2	+8	26
7	Southampton	15	7	3	5	+9	24
8	Stoke	15	7	2	6	+1	23
9	Chelsea	16	5	7	4	+5	22
10	West Brom	16	6	4	6	-2	22
11	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
12	Swansea	15	5	5	5	-4	20
13	Watford	16	5	4	7	+0	19
14	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-3	19
15	Newcastle	14	4	5	5	+0	17
16	Norwich	15	4	5	6	-3	17
17	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
18	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
19	Crystal Palace	16	4	2	10	-6	14
20	Aston Villa	15	2	4	9	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
3	Arsenal	16	8	4	4	+9	28
4	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
5	Liverpool	15	7	3	5	+4	24
6	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-4	23
7	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
8	Man City	14	5	5	4	-1	20
9	Southampton	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Man United	15	5	4	6	-2	19
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-6	19
14	Watford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
16	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Norwich	16	3	2	11	-19	11
18	Sunderland	15	2	3	10	-20	9
19	Newcastle	15	2	1	12	-26	7
20	Aston Villa	15	1	3	11	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.