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Ligue 1
Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles
Montpellier
U S U U T
3–0
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,2
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,8
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 47%
20%
73%
Points per game
1,1
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
47%
47%
Both score Ø 50%
73%
27%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,9
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
6 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 2
1 Offside 5
7 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Montpellier 15. · Paris SG 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Nice 15 11 3 1 +17 36
2 Paris SG 15 11 2 2 +22 35
3 Monaco 15 10 3 2 +28 33
4 Lyon 15 8 1 6 +10 25
5 Bordeaux 15 6 6 3 +3 24
6 Rennes 15 7 3 5 -3 24
7 Guingamp 15 6 5 4 +4 23
8 Toulouse 15 6 4 5 +5 22
9 St Etienne 15 5 7 3 +4 22
10 Angers 15 5 3 7 -3 18
11 Marseille 15 4 6 5 -4 18
12 Metz 15 5 3 7 -13 18
13 Dijon 16 3 7 6 -3 16
14 Nancy 15 4 4 7 -7 16
15 Montpellier 15 3 7 5 -8 16
16 Caen 16 4 3 9 -14 15
17 Bastia 15 3 5 7 -3 14
18 Lille 15 4 2 9 -7 14
19 Nantes 15 3 4 8 -15 13
20 Lorient 15 3 2 10 -13 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Montpellier Paris SG
18′
🟨 Christopher Nkunku
1–0 P. Lasne
S. Mounié
42′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 E. Skhiri
M. Sanson
48′
58′
🟨 Edinson Cavani
58′
🔁 H. Ben Arfa
↦ C. Nkunku
75′
🔁 Jesé
↦ Lucas Moura
3–0 R. Boudebouz
M. Sanson
80′
81′
🔁 J. Augustin
↦ E. Cavani
C. Mongongu 🔁
↦ Hilton
86′
S. Camara 🔁
↦ S. Mounié
88′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Montpellier

3-5-1-1
1 L. Pionnier G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
21 W. Rémy D
18 N. Saint-Ruf D
6 J. Marveaux M
10 R. Boudebouz M
7 P. Lasne M
8 M. Sanson M
13 E. Skhiri M
15 S. Mounié F
Bench (7)
27 C. Mongongu
19 S. Camara
25 M. Deplagne
11 K. Bérigaud
17 P. Fito
2 M. N'Diaye
30 J. Ligali

Coach: F. Hantz

Paris SG

4-3-3
16 A. Areola G
2 Thiago Silva D
20 L. Kurzawa D
19 S. Aurier D
5 Marquinhos D
14 B. Matuidi M
11 Á. di María F
4 G. Krychowiak M
7 Lucas Moura M
24 C. Nkunku M
9 E. Cavani F
Bench (7)
21 H. Ben Arfa
22 Jesé
29 J. Augustin
1 K. Trapp
12 T. Meunier
3 P. Kimpembe
17 Maxwell

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Bartolomeu Varela Teles · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
13,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.