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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Monaco

U S S S U

5–0

Full-time

Bastia

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

4,2

2,0

Scored

3,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,8

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

67%

20%

Points per game

2,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

80%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

2,9

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 5

5 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 3. · Bastia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	15	11	3	1	+17	36
2	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+19	35
3	Monaco	15	10	3	2	+28	33
4	Lyon	15	8	1	6	+10	25
5	Bordeaux	15	6	6	3	+3	24
6	Rennes	15	7	3	5	-3	24
7	Guingamp	15	6	5	4	+4	23
8	Toulouse	15	6	4	5	+5	22
9	St Etienne	15	5	7	3	+4	22
10	Montpellier	16	4	7	5	-5	19
11	Angers	15	5	3	7	-3	18
12	Marseille	15	4	6	5	-4	18
13	Metz	15	5	3	7	-13	18
14	Dijon	16	3	7	6	-3	16
15	Nancy	15	4	4	7	-7	16
16	Caen	16	4	3	9	-14	15
17	Bastia	15	3	5	7	-3	14
18	Lille	15	4	2	9	-7	14
19	Nantes	15	3	4	8	-15	13
20	Lorient	15	3	2	10	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+16	20
2	Nice	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Rennes	8	6	2	0	+8	20
4	Monaco	7	6	1	0	+20	19
5	Toulouse	7	5	0	2	+7	15
6	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Marseille	7	4	3	0	+5	15
8	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+3	14
9	Guingamp	7	4	2	1	+3	14
10	Caen	8	4	2	2	-3	14
11	Dijon	8	3	4	1	+5	13
12	St Etienne	8	3	4	1	+4	13
13	Lyon	7	4	0	3	+4	12
14	Lille	8	4	0	4	-1	12
15	Angers	7	3	2	2	+2	11
16	Nancy	8	3	1	4	+0	10
17	Bastia	8	2	4	2	+0	10
18	Lorient	8	3	1	4	-6	10
19	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
20	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Paris SG	8	5	0	3	+3	15
3	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+6	13
5	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	+0	10
6	Metz	8	3	1	4	-4	10
7	Guingamp	8	2	3	3	+1	9
8	St Etienne	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-2	7
10	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-5	7
11	Angers	8	2	1	5	-5	7
12	Nancy	7	1	3	3	-7	6
13	Bastia	7	1	1	5	-3	4
14	Montpellier	8	0	4	4	-11	4
15	Rennes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
16	Dijon	8	0	3	5	-8	3
17	Marseille	8	0	3	5	-9	3
18	Lille	7	0	2	5	-6	2
19	Lorient	7	0	1	6	-7	1
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.