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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Lille

T S T U S

0–0

Full-time

Marseille

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

41%

55%

Both score Ø 52%

55%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 8

4 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 15. · Marseille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	29	21	5	3	+58	68
2	Paris SG	29	20	5	4	+38	65
3	Nice	29	18	9	2	+24	63
4	Lyon	28	16	2	10	+27	50
5	Marseille	29	13	6	10	+6	45
6	Bordeaux	29	11	10	8	+1	43
7	St Etienne	29	10	11	8	+9	41
8	Guingamp	29	10	8	11	+1	38
9	Rennes	29	9	11	9	-5	38
10	Nantes	29	10	7	12	-16	37
11	Toulouse	29	9	9	11	-1	36
12	Angers	29	10	6	13	-10	36
13	Metz	29	9	8	12	-24	35
14	Montpellier	29	8	9	12	-7	33
15	Lille	29	9	6	14	-8	33
16	Caen	29	9	5	15	-17	32
17	Dijon	29	6	10	13	-8	28
18	Nancy	29	7	7	15	-18	28
19	Bastia	30	5	10	15	-20	25
20	Lorient	29	6	4	19	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	15	11	4	0	+20	37
3	Lyon	15	11	0	4	+23	33
4	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+14	33
5	Paris SG	14	9	5	0	+23	32
6	Rennes	15	8	5	2	+9	29
7	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
8	Guingamp	14	8	3	3	+10	27
9	Toulouse	14	8	2	4	+11	26
10	Montpellier	15	7	5	3	+10	26
11	Angers	14	6	5	3	+5	23
12	Bordeaux	15	6	5	4	-1	23
13	Metz	14	6	5	3	-4	23
14	Caen	14	7	2	5	-4	23
15	Dijon	14	5	5	4	+5	20
16	Bastia	15	3	9	3	+1	18
17	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-9	18
18	Lille	14	5	2	7	-3	17
19	Nancy	14	5	2	7	-3	17
20	Lorient	15	5	2	8	-9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	0	4	+15	33
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+17	28
3	Nice	14	7	5	2	+4	26
4	Bordeaux	14	5	5	4	+2	20
5	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
6	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+4	17
7	Lille	15	4	4	7	-5	16
8	St Etienne	14	3	5	6	-2	14
9	Angers	15	4	1	10	-15	13
10	Marseille	14	3	3	8	-8	12
11	Metz	15	3	3	9	-20	12
12	Guingamp	15	2	5	8	-9	11
13	Nancy	15	2	5	8	-15	11
14	Toulouse	15	1	7	7	-12	10
15	Caen	15	2	3	10	-13	9
16	Rennes	14	1	6	7	-14	9
17	Dijon	15	1	5	9	-13	8
18	Montpellier	14	1	4	9	-17	7
19	Bastia	15	2	1	12	-21	7
20	Lorient	14	1	2	11	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.