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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Toulouse

S U S U U

1–1

Full-time

Lille

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

33%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

44%

41%

Both score Ø 48%

44%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Lille 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	27	19	5	3	+53	62
2	Paris SG	28	19	5	4	+37	62
3	Nice	28	18	8	2	+24	62
4	Lyon	27	15	2	10	+23	47
5	Bordeaux	28	11	10	7	+2	43
6	Marseille	28	12	6	10	+3	42
7	St Etienne	28	10	10	8	+9	40
8	Rennes	28	9	10	9	-5	37
9	Angers	28	10	6	12	-7	36
10	Toulouse	27	9	8	10	+3	35
11	Guingamp	28	9	8	11	-4	35
12	Nantes	27	9	7	11	-13	34
13	Montpellier	28	8	9	11	-6	33
14	Caen	28	9	4	15	-17	31
15	Metz	27	8	7	12	-25	31
16	Lille	27	8	5	14	-9	29
17	Nancy	28	7	7	14	-17	28
18	Dijon	28	6	9	13	-8	27
19	Bastia	28	5	10	13	-14	25
20	Lorient	28	6	4	18	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	14	11	3	0	+20	36
2	Monaco	13	11	1	1	+36	34
3	Paris SG	14	9	5	0	+23	32
4	Lyon	14	10	0	4	+19	30
5	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+11	30
6	Rennes	14	8	4	2	+9	28
7	Montpellier	14	7	5	2	+11	26
8	St Etienne	14	7	5	2	+11	26
9	Toulouse	13	8	1	4	+11	25
10	Guingamp	13	7	3	3	+5	24
11	Angers	14	6	5	3	+5	23
12	Bordeaux	15	6	5	4	-1	23
13	Caen	14	7	2	5	-4	23
14	Dijon	14	5	5	4	+5	20
15	Metz	13	5	5	3	-5	20
16	Bastia	15	3	9	3	+1	18
17	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-9	18
18	Nancy	13	5	2	6	-2	17
19	Lille	14	5	2	7	-3	17
20	Lorient	14	5	2	7	-8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	0	4	+14	30
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+17	28
3	Nice	14	7	5	2	+4	26
4	Bordeaux	13	5	5	3	+3	20
5	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+4	17
6	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-4	16
7	St Etienne	14	3	5	6	-2	14
8	Angers	14	4	1	9	-12	13
9	Lille	13	3	3	7	-6	12
10	Marseille	14	3	3	8	-8	12
11	Guingamp	15	2	5	8	-9	11
12	Nancy	15	2	5	8	-15	11
13	Metz	14	3	2	9	-20	11
14	Toulouse	14	1	7	6	-8	10
15	Rennes	14	1	6	7	-14	9
16	Caen	14	2	2	10	-13	8
17	Dijon	14	1	4	9	-13	7
18	Bastia	13	2	1	10	-15	7
19	Montpellier	14	1	4	9	-17	7
20	Lorient	14	1	2	11	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.