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Ligue 1
Referee: Mikael Lesage
Marseille
S S U S U
1–0
Full-time
Bordeaux
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Bordeaux
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,5
Scored
2,8
1,7
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 50%
60%
40%
Points per game
2,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
56%
40%
Both score Ø 44%
48%
40%
Average goals
3,4
2,6
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
12 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 3. · Bordeaux 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 26 22 2 2 +62 68
2 Monaco 26 17 5 4 +38 56
3 Marseille 25 15 7 3 +26 52
4 Lyon 26 14 7 5 +24 49
5 Nantes 26 11 6 9 +0 39
6 Montpellier 26 9 11 6 +3 38
7 Bordeaux 25 10 5 10 -2 35
8 Rennes 26 10 5 11 -3 35
9 Nice 26 10 5 11 -6 35
10 Guingamp 26 9 7 10 -7 34
11 St Etienne 26 9 6 11 -13 33
12 Caen 26 9 5 12 -10 32
13 Dijon 25 9 4 12 -16 31
14 Strasbourg 26 8 6 12 -15 30
15 Troyes 25 8 3 14 -10 27
16 Toulouse 26 7 6 13 -11 27
17 Lille 26 7 6 13 -16 27
18 Amiens 26 7 5 14 -8 26
19 Angers 26 5 10 11 -12 25
20 Metz 26 5 3 18 -24 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Bordeaux
1–0 F. Thauvin
D. Payet
34′
42′
🟨 Lukas Lerager
Half-time 1–0
53′
🔁 F. Kamano
↦ N. de Préville
André Zambo Anguissa 🟨
60′
L. Ocampos 🔁
↦ D. Payet
69′
69′
🔁 M. Braithwaite
↦ Otávio
C. N'Jie 🔁
↦ V. Germain
75′
Lucas Ocampos 🟨
80′
82′
🔁 D. Contento
↦ T. Pellenard
86′
🟨 Martin Braithwaite
M. Lopez 🔁
↦ F. Thauvin
87′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
16 Y. Pelé G
23 A. Rami D
6 Rolando D
2 H. Sakai D
18 J. Amavi D
10 D. Payet M
19 Luiz Gustavo M
8 M. Sanson M
29 A. Zambo Anguissa
28 V. Germain F
26 F. Thauvin M
Bench (7)
5 L. Ocampos
14 C. N'Jie
27 M. Lopez
4 B. Kamara
12 H. Bedimo
13 A. Abdennour
40 F. Escales

Coach: R. Garcia

Bordeaux

4-3-3
1 B. Costil G
25 Pablo D
20 Y. Sabaly D
21 T. Pellenard D
5 Otávio M
31 J. Koundé D
10 S. Meïté M
19 L. Lerager M
12 N. de Préville F
24 G. Laborde F
7 Malcom F
Bench (7)
11 F. Kamano
9 M. Braithwaite
3 D. Contento
34 A. Tchouaméni
8 P. Baysse
18 J. Plašil
30 J. Prior

Coach: G. Poyet

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Mikael Lesage · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.