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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Caen

T T T T U

0–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

30%

24%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

30%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

27%

45%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

9 Shots 5

0 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 15. · Toulouse 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	29	3	2	+81	90
2	Monaco	34	21	7	6	+35	70
3	Lyon	34	20	9	5	+39	69
4	Marseille	34	20	9	5	+31	69
5	Nice	34	14	8	12	+0	50
6	St Etienne	34	13	10	11	-6	49
7	Rennes	34	13	9	12	+2	48
8	Montpellier	34	10	16	8	+2	46
9	Nantes	34	12	10	12	-4	46
10	Guingamp	34	12	9	13	-8	45
11	Bordeaux	34	12	7	15	-5	43
12	Dijon	34	11	9	14	-18	42
13	Amiens	34	11	7	16	-6	40
14	Angers	34	8	13	13	-8	37
15	Caen	33	10	6	17	-19	36
16	Strasbourg	34	8	10	16	-22	34
17	Toulouse	33	8	9	16	-13	33
18	Troyes	34	8	5	21	-23	29
19	Lille	34	7	8	19	-25	29
20	Metz	34	6	8	20	-33	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	17	0	0	+57	51
2	Monaco	17	14	2	1	+29	44
3	Marseille	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Lyon	16	9	5	2	+14	32
5	Guingamp	18	8	6	4	+6	30
6	Dijon	17	9	3	5	+4	30
7	Nice	18	9	3	6	+3	30
8	St Etienne	17	7	7	3	+2	28
9	Amiens	17	7	4	6	+5	25
10	Bordeaux	17	7	4	6	+0	25
11	Nantes	17	7	4	6	-1	25
12	Caen	16	7	3	6	-1	24
13	Toulouse	17	6	5	6	+2	23
14	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+2	23
15	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	-1	23
16	Angers	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Rennes	16	6	3	7	-3	21
18	Troyes	17	6	3	8	-4	21
19	Lille	17	4	6	7	-6	18
20	Metz	17	3	4	10	-16	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	12	3	2	+24	39
2	Lyon	18	11	4	3	+25	37
3	Marseille	17	10	4	3	+8	34
4	Rennes	18	7	6	5	+5	27
5	Monaco	17	7	5	5	+6	26
6	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+0	23
7	Nantes	17	5	6	6	-3	21
8	St Etienne	17	6	3	8	-8	21
9	Nice	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Bordeaux	17	5	3	9	-5	18
11	Angers	17	3	7	7	-5	16
12	Amiens	17	4	3	10	-11	15
13	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
14	Metz	17	3	4	10	-17	13
15	Caen	17	3	3	11	-18	12
16	Dijon	17	2	6	9	-22	12
17	Lille	17	3	2	12	-19	11
18	Strasbourg	17	2	5	10	-21	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-15	10
20	Troyes	17	2	2	13	-19	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.