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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Toulouse

S U T U T

0–1

Full-time

Caen

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-2,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 28%

29%

26%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

37%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Caen 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	34	26	5	3	+66	83
2	Paris SG	36	26	5	5	+51	83
3	Nice	35	22	11	2	+30	77
4	Lyon	35	18	4	13	+26	58
5	Bordeaux	36	15	12	9	+10	57
6	Marseille	35	15	10	10	+14	55
7	St Etienne	35	12	14	9	+8	50
8	Nantes	35	13	9	13	-13	48
9	Rennes	35	10	14	11	-7	44
10	Guingamp	35	12	8	15	-9	44
11	Lille	35	12	7	16	-4	43
12	Toulouse	35	10	12	13	-3	42
13	Montpellier	35	10	9	16	-13	39
14	Angers	35	11	6	18	-13	39
15	Metz	35	10	9	16	-34	39
16	Lorient	35	10	4	21	-24	34
17	Dijon	35	7	12	16	-10	33
18	Caen	35	9	6	20	-29	33
19	Nancy	35	8	8	19	-20	32
20	Bastia	36	7	11	18	-26	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	15	1	1	+44	46
2	Nice	18	14	4	0	+25	46
3	Paris SG	18	13	5	0	+35	44
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	17	11	0	6	+19	33
6	Rennes	17	9	6	2	+11	33
7	Guingamp	17	10	3	4	+10	33
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	St Etienne	18	7	9	2	+11	30
10	Toulouse	17	8	5	4	+11	29
11	Montpellier	18	8	5	5	+8	29
12	Metz	18	7	6	5	-7	27
13	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
14	Nantes	18	7	4	7	-8	25
15	Dijon	18	6	6	6	+4	24
16	Lorient	17	7	2	8	-4	23
17	Caen	18	7	2	9	-15	23
18	Bastia	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Lille	17	6	3	8	-1	21
20	Nancy	17	6	3	8	-1	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	13	0	5	+16	39
2	Monaco	17	11	4	2	+22	37
3	Nice	17	8	7	2	+5	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	18	6	7	5	+2	25
6	Nantes	17	6	5	6	-5	23
7	Lille	18	6	4	8	-3	22
8	St Etienne	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Marseille	18	4	6	8	-4	18
10	Toulouse	18	2	7	9	-14	13
11	Angers	17	4	1	12	-17	13
12	Metz	17	3	3	11	-27	12
13	Rennes	18	1	8	9	-18	11
14	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
15	Nancy	18	2	5	11	-19	11
16	Lorient	18	3	2	13	-20	11
17	Caen	17	2	4	11	-14	10
18	Montpellier	17	2	4	11	-21	10
19	Bastia	18	3	1	14	-27	10
20	Dijon	17	1	6	10	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.