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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Caen

S T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

29%

57%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,9

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 15. · Toulouse 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	5	2	0	+8	17
2	Paris SG	8	5	1	2	+11	16
3	Monaco	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Toulouse	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Bordeaux	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Metz	7	4	1	2	+1	13
7	Rennes	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	St Etienne	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Guingamp	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Lyon	7	3	1	3	+4	10
11	Bastia	7	3	1	3	+1	10
12	Angers	7	3	0	4	-1	9
13	Marseille	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Dijon	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Caen	7	2	1	4	-8	7
16	Montpellier	7	1	3	3	-6	6
17	Lorient	7	2	0	5	-7	6
18	Nantes	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Nancy	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Lille	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rennes	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Nice	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	St Etienne	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Toulouse	3	3	0	0	+6	9
7	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Dijon	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Guingamp	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Bastia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Lyon	3	2	0	1	+4	6
13	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Metz	3	2	0	1	+0	6
15	Caen	3	2	0	1	-3	6
16	Lorient	4	2	0	2	-3	6
17	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Lille	3	1	0	2	-3	3
19	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Nancy	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Metz	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Paris SG	4	2	0	2	+3	6
4	Bordeaux	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Lyon	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	Nancy	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Guingamp	5	1	1	3	-1	4
10	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Bastia	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Angers	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Lille	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Caen	4	0	1	3	-5	1
16	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-7	1
18	Marseille	3	0	0	3	-3	0
19	Lorient	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.