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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Excelsior

T T U T S

4–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

24%

52%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

61%

67%

Both score Ø 55%

58%

52%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 19

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 10

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	33	27	2	4	+84	83
2	PSV Eindhoven	33	25	5	3	+70	80
3	Feyenoord	33	19	5	9	+31	62
4	AZ Alkmaar	33	17	7	9	+23	58
5	Heracles	31	15	3	13	+1	48
6	Willem II	33	13	5	15	-10	44
7	Vitesse	29	11	10	8	+13	43
8	Utrecht	29	12	7	10	+2	43
9	Groningen	31	12	6	13	+2	42
10	Den Haag	33	11	9	13	-9	42
11	Heerenveen	33	10	11	12	-7	41
12	VVV Venlo	33	11	8	14	-14	41
13	Zwolle	33	11	5	17	-13	38
14	FC Emmen	33	9	8	16	-32	35
15	For Sittard	33	9	7	17	-27	34
16	Excelsior	33	8	6	19	-35	30
17	De Graafschap	33	8	5	20	-34	29
18	NAC Breda	33	5	7	21	-45	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	15	2	0	+57	47
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+49	46
3	Feyenoord	17	14	0	3	+27	42
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	11	3	3	+20	36
5	Heracles	16	11	0	5	+14	33
6	Vitesse	15	8	6	1	+15	30
7	Groningen	16	9	1	6	+9	28
8	For Sittard	16	7	5	4	+7	26
9	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+10	25
10	VVV Venlo	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Den Haag	16	6	4	6	-3	22
12	Zwolle	17	6	3	8	+0	21
13	De Graafschap	16	6	3	7	+0	21
14	Willem II	17	6	2	9	-7	20
15	Heerenveen	17	4	7	6	-8	19
16	Excelsior	16	5	4	7	-11	19
17	FC Emmen	16	4	5	7	-9	17
18	NAC Breda	16	4	5	7	-12	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	0	4	+27	36
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	10	4	3	+21	34
3	Willem II	16	7	3	6	-3	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	4	6	+3	22
5	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+1	22
6	Feyenoord	16	5	5	6	+4	20
7	Den Haag	17	5	5	7	-6	20
8	Utrecht	15	5	3	7	-8	18
9	FC Emmen	17	5	3	9	-23	18
10	Zwolle	16	5	2	9	-13	17
11	VVV Venlo	17	4	5	8	-16	17
12	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-13	15
13	Groningen	15	3	5	7	-7	14
14	Vitesse	14	3	4	7	-2	13
15	Excelsior	17	3	2	12	-24	11
16	For Sittard	17	2	2	13	-34	8
17	De Graafschap	17	2	2	13	-34	8
18	NAC Breda	17	1	2	14	-33	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.