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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

AZ Alkmaar

S S U T S

2–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

5,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

4,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,7

This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

40%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

3,3

4,1

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

31 Shots 7

13 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

23 Corners 3

9 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 6. · Excelsior 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	0	1	+46	42
2	Ajax	15	13	1	1	+42	40
3	Feyenoord	15	11	2	2	+17	35
4	Heracles	14	7	2	5	+1	23
5	Utrecht	13	6	4	3	+7	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	4	5	+5	22
7	Heerenveen	15	5	5	5	+0	20
8	VVV Venlo	15	5	5	5	-4	20
9	Den Haag	16	5	4	7	-11	19
10	Vitesse	13	4	4	5	+0	16
11	For Sittard	15	4	4	7	-3	16
12	Willem II	16	4	4	8	-10	16
13	Excelsior	15	4	4	7	-18	16
14	Zwolle	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Groningen	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	FC Emmen	15	3	5	7	-16	14
17	NAC Breda	16	3	3	10	-19	12
18	De Graafschap	15	3	2	10	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+32	24
2	Feyenoord	8	8	0	0	+15	24
3	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+22	19
4	Heracles	7	6	0	1	+12	18
5	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+11	16
6	VVV Venlo	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	For Sittard	8	3	2	3	+2	11
8	NAC Breda	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	3	2	+3	9
10	De Graafschap	8	3	0	5	-6	9
11	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-7	9
12	Vitesse	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Den Haag	7	2	2	3	-6	8
14	Groningen	7	2	1	4	+0	7
15	Heerenveen	7	1	3	3	-6	6
16	FC Emmen	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Willem II	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Zwolle	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	7	0	1	+20	21
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	6	0	1	+14	18
3	Heerenveen	8	4	2	2	+6	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+2	13
5	Feyenoord	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-4	11
7	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Vitesse	8	2	2	4	-1	8
10	VVV Venlo	8	2	2	4	-9	8
11	FC Emmen	7	2	2	3	-10	8
12	Groningen	7	2	1	4	-5	7
13	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-11	7
14	Utrecht	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	For Sittard	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-11	5
17	De Graafschap	7	0	2	5	-15	2
18	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.