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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Oliveira
Maritimo
T U U
5–2
Full-time
Vitoria Setubal
U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Vitoria Setubal
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
2,3
4,0
Scored
1,0
2,7
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
2,3
4,0
Scored
1,0
2,7
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

5 Shots 2
5 Shots on target 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Maritimo 15. · Vitoria Setubal 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 4 3 1 0 +7 10
2 Benfica 4 3 0 1 +10 9
3 Sp Lisbon 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Arouca 4 2 1 1 +1 7
5 Sp Braga 4 2 0 2 +3 6
6 Estoril 4 2 0 2 -3 6
7 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
8 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 U. Madeira 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
12 Tondela 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Nacional 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Belenenses 4 0 3 1 -6 3
15 Maritimo 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Guimaraes 3 0 2 1 -3 2
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Maritimo Vitoria Setubal
22′
🔁 Rúben Semedo
↦ Ruca
37′
🟨 Nuno Pinto
43′
⚽ Costinha 0–1
45′
🟨 André Claro
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Rúben Ferreira ⚽
47′
51′
🔁 A. Issoko
↦ André Horta
2–1 Dyego Sousa ⚽
56′
60′
🟨 Arnold
66′
🔁 U. Dávila
↦ André Claro
3–1 G. Ghazaryan ⚽
71′
73′
🟨 Nuno Pinto
73′
🟥 Nuno Pinto
Alex Soares 🟨
75′
Éber 🔁
↦ Alex Soares
76′
4–1 G. Ghazaryan ⚽
78′
81′
⚽ Hyun-Jun Suk 4–2
António Xavier 🔁
↦ João Diogo
82′
Marcos 🔁
↦ Edgar Costa
84′
5–2 Dyego Sousa ⚽
92′
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Maritimo

78 R. Salin
5 Dirceu D
34 Raúl Silva D
2 João Diogo D
41 Rúben Ferreira D
91 Patrick D
10 G. Ghazaryan M
35 Fransérgio M
7 Alex Soares M
12 Edgar Costa F
9 Dyego Sousa F
Bench (7)
11 Éber
50 António Xavier
42 Marcos
22 U. Diallo
93 José Sá
4 Deyvison
21 Briguel

Vitoria Setubal

1 L. Raeder G
21 Nuno Pinto D
40 A. Sene
3 Frederico Venâncio D
6 Fabio Pacheco M
8 Paulo Tavares M
90 Ruca M
77 André Horta M
18 André Claro F
10 Hyun-Jun Suk F
11 Costinha M
Bench (7)
35 Rúben Semedo
19 A. Issoko
7 U. Dávila
66 Ricardo Dani
82 Ricardo
23 Vasco Costa
22 William Alves

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Manuel Oliveira · 149 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.