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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Arouca

U S T U T

1–2

Full-time

Tondela

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 24%

28%

19%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	24	6	2	+49	78
2	Porto	32	21	10	1	+51	73
3	Sp Lisbon	32	20	7	5	+30	67
4	Guimaraes	32	18	8	6	+17	62
5	Sp Braga	32	14	9	9	+13	51
6	Maritimo	32	13	9	10	+2	48
7	Rio Ave	32	13	6	13	+0	45
8	Feirense	32	12	6	14	-16	42
9	Boavista	32	9	12	11	-4	39
10	Chaves	32	8	13	11	-4	37
11	Belenenses	33	9	9	15	-16	36
12	Vitoria Setubal	32	9	8	15	-9	35
13	Pacos Ferreira	32	8	11	13	-10	35
14	Estoril	32	9	7	16	-8	34
15	Arouca	32	9	5	18	-21	32
16	Moreirense	33	7	9	17	-17	30
17	Tondela	32	6	8	18	-26	26
18	Nacional	32	4	9	19	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	3	0	+35	42
2	Porto	16	13	3	0	+32	42
3	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	36
4	Maritimo	16	10	4	2	+13	34
5	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+15	31
6	Guimaraes	16	8	5	3	+8	29
7	Chaves	16	6	7	3	+4	25
8	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Rio Ave	16	7	4	5	+3	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-3	21
12	Boavista	16	5	5	6	+3	20
13	Arouca	16	6	2	8	-4	20
14	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-9	20
15	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-5	18
16	Estoril	16	5	2	9	-5	17
17	Moreirense	16	3	7	6	-4	16
18	Nacional	16	2	6	8	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+14	36
2	Guimaraes	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Porto	16	8	7	1	+19	31
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	4	3	+10	31
5	Feirense	16	6	4	6	-7	22
6	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-2	20
7	Rio Ave	16	6	2	8	-3	20
8	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-7	19
9	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-11	18
10	Estoril	16	4	5	7	-3	17
11	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
12	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-13	14
13	Chaves	16	2	6	8	-8	12
14	Arouca	16	3	3	10	-17	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	5	9	-11	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	4	10	-14	10
17	Nacional	16	2	3	11	-20	9
18	Tondela	16	0	5	11	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.