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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Atalanta

U U S U U

1–1

Full-time

Milan

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 52%

54%

49%

Points per game

1,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

57%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	27	4	4	+48	85
2	Roma	35	25	3	7	+47	78
3	Napoli	35	23	8	4	+45	77
4	Lazio	36	21	7	8	+27	70
5	Atalanta	35	19	8	8	+19	65
6	Milan	35	17	8	10	+10	59
7	Fiorentina	36	16	11	9	+9	59
8	Inter	35	17	5	13	+19	56
9	Torino	35	12	14	9	+9	50
10	Sampdoria	35	12	10	13	-4	46
11	Udinese	35	12	8	15	-5	44
12	Chievo	35	12	6	17	-15	42
13	Cagliari	35	12	5	18	-19	41
14	Sassuolo	35	11	7	17	-8	40
15	Bologna	35	10	8	17	-16	38
16	Genoa	35	8	9	18	-25	33
17	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-29	32
18	Crotone	35	7	7	21	-24	28
19	Palermo	35	4	8	23	-44	20
20	Pescara	35	2	8	25	-44	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	17	1	0	+36	52
2	Roma	17	14	1	2	+29	43
3	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+22	40
4	Lazio	18	12	2	4	+19	38
5	Fiorentina	18	10	7	1	+11	37
6	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+12	36
7	Milan	18	11	2	5	+9	35
8	Inter	17	10	3	4	+20	33
9	Torino	17	8	8	1	+15	32
10	Cagliari	17	9	3	5	+2	30
11	Sampdoria	17	8	5	4	+7	29
12	Udinese	18	8	4	6	+7	28
13	Bologna	17	7	2	8	-2	23
14	Chievo	18	6	5	7	-3	23
15	Genoa	18	5	7	6	-1	22
16	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-5	21
17	Empoli	18	5	4	9	-12	19
18	Crotone	17	4	4	9	-7	16
19	Palermo	17	2	3	12	-19	9
20	Pescara	18	1	5	12	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+23	37
2	Roma	18	11	2	5	+18	35
3	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Lazio	18	9	5	4	+8	32
5	Atalanta	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	24
7	Inter	18	7	2	9	-1	23
8	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	-2	22
9	Sassuolo	17	5	4	8	-3	19
10	Chievo	17	6	1	10	-12	19
11	Torino	18	4	6	8	-6	18
12	Sampdoria	18	4	5	9	-11	17
13	Udinese	17	4	4	9	-12	16
14	Bologna	18	3	6	9	-14	15
15	Empoli	17	3	4	10	-17	13
16	Crotone	18	3	3	12	-17	12
17	Cagliari	18	3	2	13	-21	11
18	Genoa	17	3	2	12	-24	11
19	Palermo	18	2	5	11	-25	11
20	Pescara	17	1	3	13	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.