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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Guimaraes

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Arouca

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 42%

55%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

45%

52%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

8 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 4. · Arouca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	31	23	6	2	+48	75
2	Porto	32	21	10	1	+51	73
3	Sp Lisbon	32	20	7	5	+30	67
4	Guimaraes	31	17	8	6	+16	59
5	Sp Braga	32	14	9	9	+13	51
6	Maritimo	32	13	9	10	+2	48
7	Rio Ave	31	13	6	12	+1	45
8	Feirense	32	12	6	14	-16	42
9	Boavista	32	9	12	11	-4	39
10	Chaves	31	8	13	10	-3	37
11	Vitoria Setubal	32	9	8	15	-9	35
12	Pacos Ferreira	32	8	11	13	-10	35
13	Belenenses	32	9	8	15	-16	35
14	Arouca	31	9	5	17	-20	32
15	Estoril	31	8	7	16	-9	31
16	Moreirense	32	7	8	17	-17	29
17	Tondela	32	6	8	18	-26	26
18	Nacional	32	4	9	19	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	3	0	+35	42
2	Porto	16	13	3	0	+32	42
3	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	36
4	Maritimo	16	10	4	2	+13	34
5	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+15	31
6	Guimaraes	15	7	5	3	+7	26
7	Rio Ave	15	7	4	4	+4	25
8	Chaves	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	7	3	+4	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-3	21
12	Boavista	16	5	5	6	+3	20
13	Arouca	16	6	2	8	-4	20
14	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-9	20
15	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-5	17
16	Moreirense	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	14
18	Nacional	16	2	6	8	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Guimaraes	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Porto	16	8	7	1	+19	31
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	4	3	+10	31
5	Feirense	16	6	4	6	-7	22
6	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-2	20
7	Rio Ave	16	6	2	8	-3	20
8	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-7	19
9	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-11	18
10	Estoril	16	4	5	7	-3	17
11	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
12	Moreirense	16	4	1	11	-13	13
13	Chaves	15	2	6	7	-7	12
14	Arouca	15	3	3	9	-16	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	5	9	-11	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	4	10	-14	10
17	Nacional	16	2	3	11	-20	9
18	Tondela	16	0	5	11	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.