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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Lisbon

U S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

74%

17%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

43%

48%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 4

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Moreirense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	24	20	4	0	+54	64
2	Benfica	24	18	5	1	+46	59
3	Sp Lisbon	23	17	5	1	+33	56
4	Sp Braga	24	17	1	6	+26	52
5	Rio Ave	24	11	4	9	+0	37
6	Chaves	24	10	6	8	-4	36
7	Boavista	24	10	3	11	-5	33
8	Maritimo	24	9	6	9	-9	33
9	Guimaraes	24	9	2	13	-14	29
10	Portimonense	24	7	6	11	-5	27
11	Belenenses	24	7	6	11	-12	27
12	Tondela	24	7	4	13	-10	25
13	Aves	24	5	7	12	-11	22
14	Vitoria Setubal	24	4	9	11	-18	21
15	Pacos Ferreira	24	5	6	13	-18	21
16	Estoril	24	6	3	15	-23	21
17	Feirense	24	6	2	16	-14	20
18	Moreirense	23	4	7	12	-16	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+32	34
2	Sp Braga	13	11	0	2	+21	33
3	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+22	32
4	Benfica	11	10	1	0	+30	31
5	Boavista	12	8	0	4	+4	24
6	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+4	24
7	Rio Ave	12	7	2	3	+9	23
8	Belenenses	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	-6	19
10	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	+1	17
11	Chaves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
12	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	4	4	-2	16
14	Estoril	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Feirense	12	4	1	7	-6	13
16	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-6	11
17	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Aves	12	2	3	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+11	24
4	Sp Braga	11	6	1	4	+5	19
5	Chaves	12	6	1	5	-5	19
6	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-9	14
8	Aves	12	3	4	5	-3	13
9	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
10	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-8	10
11	Moreirense	11	3	1	7	-9	10
12	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-9	9
13	Maritimo	12	2	3	7	-13	9
14	Belenenses	12	2	2	8	-14	8
15	Estoril	12	2	2	8	-17	8
16	Feirense	12	2	1	9	-8	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-16	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.