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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Moreirense
U T T S T
1–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+2,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
13 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 8
3 Offside 2
23 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Sp Lisbon 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 7 7 0 0 +16 21
2 Sp Lisbon 6 6 0 0 +12 18
3 Maritimo 6 5 0 1 +4 15
4 Benfica 6 4 1 1 +8 13
5 Rio Ave 6 3 1 2 +2 10
6 Sp Braga 6 3 0 3 -1 9
7 Feirense 6 2 2 2 +1 8
8 Chaves 7 2 1 4 -2 7
9 Belenenses 6 2 1 3 -5 7
10 Guimaraes 6 2 1 3 -7 7
11 Vitoria Setubal 6 1 3 2 +0 6
12 Pacos Ferreira 6 1 3 2 -1 6
13 Boavista 6 2 0 4 -2 6
14 Portimonense 7 2 0 5 -6 6
15 Estoril 7 2 0 5 -6 6
16 Tondela 6 1 2 3 -1 5
17 Moreirense 6 1 2 3 -7 5
18 Aves 6 1 1 4 -5 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Moreirense Sp Lisbon
1–0 Rafael Costa
43′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 S. Doumbia
↦ A. Ruiz
André Micael 🔁
↦ K. Kouao
54′
Neto 🟨
57′
61′
M. Aberhoune 2–0
own goal
66′
🔁 R. Battaglia
↦ Bruno Fernandes
72′
🟨 Bruno César
73′
🔁 Iuri Medeiros
↦ Bruno César
74′
🟨 Sebastián Coates
B. Aouacheria 🔁
↦ R. Peña
76′
77′
🟨 Rodrigo Battaglia
Ruben Lima 🟨
79′
J. Cádiz 🔁
↦ Tozé
85′
Jhonatan 🟨
89′
90′
🟨 Fábio Coentrão
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-2-3-1
18 Jhonatan G
5 Ruben Lima D
4 Iago Santos D
6 M. Aberhoune D
22 K. Kouao D
23 Rafael Costa M
91 Neto M
40 Zizo M
90 Alfa Semedo M
20 Tozé M
70 R. Peña F
Bench (7)
3 André Micael
10 B. Aouacheria
88 J. Cádiz
11 E. Ohemeng
26 H. Belkaroui
50 Felipe
77 Arsénio

Coach: Manuel Machado

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
22 J. Mathieu D
5 Fábio Coentrão D
4 S. Coates D
92 C. Piccini D
11 Bruno César M
14 William Carvalho M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
28 B. Dost F
10 A. Ruiz M
77 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
88 S. Doumbia
16 R. Battaglia
45 Iuri Medeiros
3 J. Silva
6 André Pinto
13 S. Ristovski
18 R. Salin

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 45 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
35,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.