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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela

Rio Ave

T T U U S

2–2

Full-time

Tondela

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

53%

Both score Ø 71%

79%

63%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

6 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

23 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Rio Ave 9. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	19	16	1	2	+30	49
2	Benfica	19	14	2	3	+25	44
3	Sp Braga	19	13	4	2	+19	43
4	Sp Lisbon	19	12	3	4	+16	39
5	Guimaraes	19	9	4	6	+5	31
6	Moreirense	19	10	1	8	-3	31
7	Belenenses	19	7	8	4	+2	29
8	Portimonense	19	8	3	8	-3	27
9	Rio Ave	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Santa Clara	19	6	3	10	-3	21
11	Vitoria Setubal	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Maritimo	19	6	2	11	-11	20
13	Tondela	19	5	4	10	-6	19
14	Nacional	19	5	4	10	-15	19
15	Aves	19	5	3	11	-10	18
16	Boavista	19	4	4	11	-13	16
17	Chaves	19	4	3	12	-14	15
18	Feirense	19	2	8	9	-14	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Sp Braga	10	9	1	0	+16	28
3	Porto	10	9	0	1	+20	27
4	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+16	22
5	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+4	19
6	Portimonense	10	5	3	2	+5	18
7	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+4	17
8	Rio Ave	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Belenenses	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Aves	10	3	3	4	+1	12
11	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-3	11
13	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	10
14	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Nacional	10	3	1	6	-9	10
16	Feirense	9	1	5	3	-2	8
17	Chaves	9	2	2	5	-4	8
18	Santa Clara	10	2	1	7	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+9	22
3	Sp Braga	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Guimaraes	10	4	2	4	+1	14
6	Belenenses	10	3	5	2	-1	14
7	Moreirense	10	4	0	6	-7	12
8	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-4	9
11	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
13	Tondela	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	Rio Ave	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-10	7
16	Boavista	10	1	3	6	-10	6
17	Aves	9	2	0	7	-11	6
18	Feirense	10	1	3	6	-12	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.