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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

De Graafschap

U T U S T

3–0

Full-time

NAC Breda

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

De Graafschap NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

53%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,4

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

23 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match De Graafschap 18. · NAC Breda 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	19	17	1	1	+53	52
2	Ajax	19	15	2	2	+48	47
3	Feyenoord	19	12	3	4	+17	39
4	AZ Alkmaar	19	9	4	6	+9	31
5	VVV Venlo	19	7	5	7	-2	26
6	Heracles	18	8	2	8	-5	26
7	Utrecht	17	7	4	6	+2	25
8	Willem II	19	7	4	8	-5	25
9	Vitesse	17	6	5	6	+1	23
10	For Sittard	19	6	5	8	-4	23
11	Heerenveen	19	5	6	8	-5	21
12	Zwolle	19	6	3	10	-9	21
13	Den Haag	19	5	6	8	-13	21
14	FC Emmen	19	5	6	8	-16	21
15	Excelsior	19	5	4	10	-21	19
16	Groningen	18	5	3	10	-4	18
17	NAC Breda	19	4	4	11	-19	16
18	De Graafschap	19	4	3	12	-27	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+35	30
2	Feyenoord	10	9	0	1	+17	27
3	Ajax	9	7	2	0	+30	23
4	Heracles	9	6	0	3	+6	18
5	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	+8	16
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	3	2	+7	15
7	VVV Venlo	9	4	3	2	+6	15
8	For Sittard	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Vitesse	7	4	2	1	+3	14
10	NAC Breda	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	De Graafschap	10	4	1	5	-2	13
12	Excelsior	10	3	3	4	-8	12
13	Groningen	9	3	1	5	+2	10
14	Den Haag	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	Willem II	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-5	8
17	FC Emmen	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	Heerenveen	9	1	3	5	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	10	8	0	2	+18	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+18	22
3	Willem II	10	5	2	3	-1	17
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	16
5	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	+4	15
6	FC Emmen	9	4	2	3	-8	14
7	Zwolle	9	4	1	4	-4	13
8	Feyenoord	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Den Haag	10	3	3	4	-5	12
10	VVV Venlo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
11	Vitesse	10	2	3	5	-2	9
12	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-6	9
13	Groningen	9	2	2	5	-6	8
14	For Sittard	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-11	8
16	Excelsior	9	2	1	6	-13	7
17	NAC Breda	9	0	2	7	-18	2
18	De Graafschap	9	0	2	7	-25	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.