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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Rio Ave

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Tondela

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 37%

45%

28%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

48%

45%

Both score Ø 49%

45%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 29

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Tondela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	30	24	4	2	+57	76
2	Benfica	30	23	5	2	+57	74
3	Sp Lisbon	30	22	5	3	+38	71
4	Sp Braga	30	22	2	6	+43	68
5	Maritimo	30	12	8	10	-8	44
6	Rio Ave	29	13	4	12	-3	43
7	Boavista	30	11	5	14	-10	38
8	Chaves	30	10	8	12	-12	38
9	Guimaraes	30	11	4	15	-13	37
10	Portimonense	30	9	8	13	-7	35
11	Belenenses	30	8	9	13	-12	33
12	Tondela	29	8	7	14	-9	31
13	Vitoria Setubal	30	6	11	13	-17	29
14	Moreirense	30	7	8	15	-17	29
15	Aves	30	7	7	16	-15	28
16	Pacos Ferreira	30	7	7	16	-23	28
17	Estoril	30	7	5	18	-31	26
18	Feirense	30	7	3	20	-18	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	14	1	0	+37	43
2	Sp Lisbon	15	13	2	0	+27	41
3	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+38	40
4	Sp Braga	15	13	0	2	+25	39
5	Maritimo	15	9	4	2	+9	31
6	Rio Ave	14	9	2	3	+12	29
7	Boavista	15	9	2	4	+5	29
8	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	-2	27
9	Belenenses	15	6	5	4	+3	23
10	Portimonense	15	7	2	6	+2	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	4	5	-3	22
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Chaves	15	4	6	5	-3	18
14	Moreirense	15	4	6	5	-3	18
15	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-5	17
16	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Aves	15	4	3	8	-7	15
18	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-12	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	4	1	+19	34
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Sp Lisbon	15	9	3	3	+11	30
4	Sp Braga	15	9	2	4	+18	29
5	Chaves	15	6	2	7	-9	20
6	Tondela	14	4	4	6	-4	16
7	Rio Ave	15	4	2	9	-15	14
8	Aves	15	3	4	8	-8	13
9	Maritimo	15	3	4	8	-17	13
10	Portimonense	15	2	6	7	-9	12
11	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
12	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
13	Guimaraes	15	3	1	11	-11	10
14	Belenenses	15	2	4	9	-15	10
15	Boavista	15	2	3	10	-15	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	1	5	9	-18	8
17	Feirense	15	2	1	12	-13	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.