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Pro League
1–2
Full-time
Gent
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Royal Excel Mouscron Gent
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,0
This season — Pro League · 7/6 matches
Win Ø 40%
29%
50%
Points per game
1,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
71%
50%
Both score Ø 77%
86%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Royal Excel Mouscron 12. · Gent 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Oostende 8 6 2 0 +11 20
2 Anderlecht 7 5 2 0 +8 17
3 Club Brugge 8 5 1 2 +13 16
4 St Truiden 9 4 1 4 +3 13
5 Gent 6 3 3 0 +6 12
6 Genk 6 4 0 2 +4 12
7 Charleroi 6 2 3 1 +2 9
8 Waregem 6 3 0 3 +0 9
9 Mechelen 8 2 3 3 -4 9
10 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 10 2 3 5 -4 9
11 Beveren 7 3 0 4 -7 9
12 Royal Excel Mouscron 7 2 2 3 -3 8
13 Kortrijk 7 1 4 2 -1 7
14 Westerlo 10 1 4 5 -9 7
15 Lokeren 8 1 1 6 -7 4
16 Standard 7 1 1 5 -12 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Royal Excel Mouscron Gent
1–0 N. Dussenne
J. Michel
7′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 K. Saief
↦ E. Johansson
57′
🔁 B. Dejaegere
↦ Renato Neto
68′
🔁 N. Pedersen
↦ B. Raman
69′
M. Oussalah 2–0
own goal
Frederic Maciel 🔁
↦ T. Dingome
76′
L. Vaccaro 🔁
↦ F. Marquet
77′
78′
S. Kums 2–1
A. Badri 🔁
↦ M. Oussalah
89′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Royal Excel Mouscron

86 Vagner
25 M. Oussalah
3 N. Dussenne
6 T. Mézague
13 N. Aksentijević
5 D. Hubert
10 J. Michel
19 T. Dingome
8 F. Marquet
90 Tozé Marreco
18 F. Marković
Bench (7)
27 Frederic Maciel
26 L. Vaccaro
9 A. Badri
1 O. Marciano
14 C. Kocur
17 M. Jakoliš
55 C. Manea

Gent

1 M. Sels
21 N. Asare
5 E. Johansson
13 S. Mitrović
23 L. Nielsen
77 D. Miličević
14 S. Kums
10 Renato Neto
32 T. Foket
9 L. Depoitre
26 B. Raman
Bench (7)
15 K. Saief
19 B. Dejaegere
28 N. Pedersen
4 Rafinha
7 K. Coulibaly
12 M. Poletanović
25 B. Vandenbussche

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.