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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Chelsea

S T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 15/13 matches

Win Ø 55%

47%

62%

Points per game

1,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

67%

69%

Both score Ø 39%

47%

31%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

2,0

2,1

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

16 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 3

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 8. · Aston Villa 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	9	5	1	+17	32
2	Leicester	16	9	2	5	+9	29
3	Everton	15	9	2	4	+7	29
4	Man United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
5	Tottenham	15	7	5	3	+11	26
6	Man City	14	7	5	2	+9	26
7	Aston Villa	13	8	1	4	+14	25
8	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+13	25
9	Southampton	15	7	4	4	+6	25
10	West Ham	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Wolves	15	6	3	6	-5	21
12	Leeds	15	6	2	7	-5	20
13	Crystal Palace	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Newcastle	14	5	3	6	-7	18
15	Arsenal	15	5	2	8	-4	17
16	Brighton	15	2	7	6	-6	13
17	Burnley	14	3	4	7	-12	13
18	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-10	11
19	West Brom	15	1	5	9	-19	8
20	Sheffield United	15	0	2	13	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+10	14
3	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Southampton	7	4	0	3	+4	12
6	West Ham	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Wolves	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
11	Leicester	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Arsenal	8	3	1	4	-2	10
13	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-4	10
14	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-6	9
15	Man United	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-10	5
19	Brighton	7	0	4	3	-4	4
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Leicester	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Everton	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Aston Villa	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+9	15
6	Southampton	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Man City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+3	11
9	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+4	10
10	West Ham	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-5	9
14	Wolves	7	3	0	4	-6	9
15	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	West Brom	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.