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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Chelsea

S S S T T

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

64%

71%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

25 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Aston Villa 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	13	1	0	+20	40
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+26	32
3	Leicester	14	10	2	2	+24	32
4	Chelsea	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Crystal Palace	15	6	3	6	-4	21
6	Tottenham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
7	Wolves	14	4	8	2	+2	20
8	Sheffield United	14	4	7	3	+4	19
9	Arsenal	14	4	7	3	-1	19
10	Man United	14	4	6	4	+4	18
11	Burnley	15	5	3	7	-3	18
12	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-3	16
13	West Ham	14	4	4	6	-6	16
14	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Aston Villa	14	4	3	7	-1	15
16	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-5	15
17	Everton	14	4	2	8	-8	14
18	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-17	12
19	Norwich	14	3	2	9	-15	11
20	Watford	14	1	5	8	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+12	21
2	Leicester	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+15	16
4	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+7	14
5	Arsenal	7	3	4	0	+3	13
6	Man United	7	3	3	1	+6	12
7	Burnley	8	4	0	4	-1	12
8	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	11
10	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
11	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Sheffield United	7	3	1	3	+2	10
13	Newcastle	7	2	4	1	+1	10
14	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+0	10
15	Everton	7	3	1	3	-2	10
16	Bournemouth	7	2	3	2	+0	9
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	7	2	1	4	-6	7
19	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Watford	7	0	3	4	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	16
3	Chelsea	7	5	0	2	+5	15
4	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
5	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
6	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Sheffield United	7	1	6	0	+2	9
8	West Ham	7	2	3	2	-2	9
9	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-3	7
11	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Man United	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	Arsenal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Newcastle	7	2	0	5	-10	6
16	Watford	7	1	2	4	-10	5
17	Aston Villa	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Everton	7	1	1	5	-6	4
19	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Norwich	7	1	1	5	-9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.