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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Chelsea

T T S U T

2–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

25%

13%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

88%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,6

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 16. · Aston Villa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+12	18
2	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Man United	8	5	1	2	+4	16
4	Crystal Palace	8	5	0	3	+4	15
5	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+2	15
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Tottenham	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Everton	8	3	4	1	+4	13
9	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Southampton	8	3	3	2	+3	12
11	Swansea	8	2	4	2	+0	10
12	Watford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Chelsea	8	2	2	4	-5	8
17	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-5	4
19	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	-10	3
20	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+9	9
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
8	Southampton	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Everton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
10	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Bournemouth	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.