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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Derby

U S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

23 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 15. · Middlesbrough 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	14	8	4	2	+9	28
2	West Brom	14	7	6	1	+9	27
3	Preston	14	7	4	3	+11	25
4	Leeds	14	7	4	3	+9	25
5	Bristol City	15	6	7	2	+3	25
6	Sheffield Weds	14	7	3	4	+8	24
7	QPR	14	7	2	5	-2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+9	22
9	Charlton	14	6	4	4	+5	22
10	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+5	22
11	Birmingham	14	7	1	6	-2	22
12	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
13	Brentford	13	5	3	5	+3	18
14	Millwall	14	4	6	4	-3	18
15	Derby	14	4	6	4	-4	18
16	Cardiff	13	4	5	4	-1	17
17	Blackburn	14	4	3	7	-4	15
18	Wigan	15	4	3	8	-8	15
19	Luton	14	4	2	8	-4	14
20	Huddersfield	14	3	4	7	-5	13
21	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
22	Middlesbrough	14	2	6	6	-6	12
23	Barnsley	15	1	6	8	-15	9
24	Stoke	14	2	2	10	-12	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	Birmingham	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Fulham	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Millwall	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+6	13
7	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+5	13
8	Charlton	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Swansea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
10	Wigan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
11	Derby	7	3	3	1	+3	12
12	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
13	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+2	11
14	Hull	8	3	2	3	+0	11
15	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+3	10
17	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+3	9
18	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+1	9
19	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-3	9
20	Luton	6	2	2	2	+0	8
21	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-2	8
22	Barnsley	8	1	4	3	-5	7
23	Reading	6	2	0	4	-4	6
24	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	7	4	3	0	+5	15
2	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+1	13
5	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
6	QPR	6	4	0	2	-1	12
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	1	3	+4	10
8	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Brentford	7	3	0	4	+0	9
10	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Hull	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
13	Luton	8	2	0	6	-4	6
14	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-5	6
15	Derby	7	1	3	3	-7	6
16	Birmingham	7	2	0	5	-7	6
17	Preston	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Millwall	7	0	4	3	-7	4
21	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-7	4
22	Middlesbrough	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Wigan	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Barnsley	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.