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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Middlesbrough

S T S U T

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 21%

18%

23%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 20. · Stoke 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	14	7	1	+22	49
2	Leeds	22	14	5	3	+22	47
3	Preston	22	11	4	7	+8	37
4	Sheffield Weds	22	10	6	6	+13	36
5	Bristol City	22	9	8	5	+2	35
6	Fulham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
7	Nott'm Forest	21	9	7	5	+6	34
8	Swansea	21	9	7	5	+5	34
9	Blackburn	22	10	4	8	+2	34
10	Millwall	22	8	9	5	+0	33
11	Cardiff	21	8	7	6	+2	31
12	QPR	22	9	4	9	-7	31
13	Brentford	20	9	3	8	+12	30
14	Hull	22	8	6	8	+3	30
15	Birmingham	22	8	4	10	-7	28
16	Derby	22	6	8	8	-7	26
17	Charlton	22	6	6	10	-2	24
18	Reading	21	6	5	10	-2	23
19	Huddersfield	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Middlesbrough	22	4	9	9	-12	21
21	Luton	22	6	2	14	-18	20
22	Stoke	22	5	3	14	-11	18
23	Wigan	22	4	6	12	-15	18
24	Barnsley	22	3	7	12	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	12	9	2	1	+16	29
2	Leeds	11	7	3	1	+11	24
3	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+13	22
4	Cardiff	9	7	1	1	+9	22
5	Blackburn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+8	20
7	Derby	12	5	5	2	+5	20
8	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	4	1	+5	19
10	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
11	Hull	11	5	2	4	+4	17
12	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
13	Birmingham	11	5	2	4	+1	17
14	Bristol City	11	4	4	3	+2	16
15	Middlesbrough	11	4	4	3	-1	16
16	Charlton	12	4	3	5	+1	15
17	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
18	Wigan	11	4	3	4	-3	15
19	Luton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
20	Nott'm Forest	10	4	2	4	-1	14
21	Barnsley	12	3	5	4	-3	14
22	Reading	10	4	0	6	-2	12
23	Stoke	12	3	2	7	-4	11
24	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	12	8	3	1	+9	27
2	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+0	19
5	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	+8	17
6	Swansea	10	4	5	1	+1	17
7	QPR	11	5	1	5	-4	16
8	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Millwall	12	3	5	4	-5	14
10	Hull	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Blackburn	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Brentford	10	4	0	6	+1	12
13	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Reading	11	2	5	4	+0	11
15	Birmingham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-3	9
17	Cardiff	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Preston	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7
20	Derby	10	1	3	6	-12	6
21	Luton	12	2	0	10	-18	6
22	Middlesbrough	11	0	5	6	-11	5
23	Wigan	11	0	3	8	-12	3
24	Barnsley	10	0	2	8	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.