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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Burnley

U S U U T

1–1

Full-time

Leicester

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 43%

27%

58%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

31%

58%

Both score Ø 39%

27%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 15. · Leicester 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Man United	26	14	8	4	+21	50
3	Leicester	26	15	4	7	+15	49
4	West Ham	26	13	6	7	+9	45
5	Chelsea	26	12	8	6	+16	44
6	Liverpool	26	12	7	7	+13	43
7	Everton	25	13	4	8	+5	43
8	Tottenham	25	11	6	8	+14	39
9	Aston Villa	24	12	3	9	+12	39
10	Arsenal	26	11	4	11	+7	37
11	Leeds	26	11	2	13	-1	35
12	Wolves	27	9	7	11	-9	34
13	Crystal Palace	26	9	6	11	-14	33
14	Southampton	26	8	6	12	-13	30
15	Burnley	26	7	7	12	-16	28
16	Brighton	26	5	11	10	-7	26
17	Newcastle	26	7	5	14	-17	26
18	Fulham	26	4	11	11	-11	23
19	West Brom	26	3	8	15	-35	17
20	Sheffield United	26	3	2	21	-28	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	West Ham	13	7	3	3	+6	24
3	Chelsea	13	6	5	2	+12	23
4	Liverpool	13	7	2	4	+6	23
5	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
6	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+8	21
7	Leicester	13	6	1	6	+1	19
8	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+2	17
11	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Everton	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Aston Villa	11	5	1	5	+4	16
14	Burnley	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Crystal Palace	13	4	4	5	-7	16
16	Newcastle	13	4	3	6	-6	15
17	Brighton	13	1	7	5	-5	10
18	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-9	10
19	West Brom	13	2	4	7	-23	10
20	Sheffield United	13	2	1	10	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
2	Leicester	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Man United	13	8	5	0	+12	29
4	Everton	12	8	2	2	+7	26
5	Aston Villa	13	7	2	4	+8	23
6	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
8	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+7	20
9	Arsenal	13	6	1	6	+5	19
10	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+6	18
11	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
12	Crystal Palace	13	5	2	6	-7	17
13	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Wolves	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Fulham	13	2	7	4	-2	13
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-14	13
17	Burnley	13	3	3	7	-12	12
18	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.