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Serie A

Referee: G Calvarese

Fiorentina

U T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Roma

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 40%

25%

54%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

46%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	24	17	5	2	+36	56
2	Milan	24	16	4	4	+18	52
3	Juventus	24	14	7	3	+28	49
4	Atalanta	24	13	7	4	+24	46
5	Napoli	24	14	2	8	+24	44
6	Roma	24	13	5	6	+11	44
7	Lazio	24	13	4	7	+6	43
8	Sassuolo	24	9	9	6	+3	36
9	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
10	Sampdoria	24	9	3	12	-3	30
11	Bologna	24	7	7	10	-5	28
12	Udinese	24	7	7	10	-7	28
13	Genoa	24	6	8	10	-10	26
14	Fiorentina	24	6	7	11	-11	25
15	Spezia	25	6	7	12	-14	25
16	Benevento	24	6	7	11	-19	25
17	Torino	23	3	11	9	-8	20
18	Cagliari	24	4	6	14	-15	18
19	Parma	24	2	9	13	-28	15
20	Crotone	24	3	3	18	-34	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	1	1	+21	31
2	Roma	13	9	3	1	+17	30
3	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+18	29
4	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+20	25
5	Lazio	12	7	2	3	+4	23
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+12	21
7	Milan	12	6	3	3	+6	21
8	Verona	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Fiorentina	12	5	4	3	+3	19
10	Bologna	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Sampdoria	12	5	1	6	+0	16
12	Sassuolo	12	3	6	3	+0	15
13	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-1	15
14	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Benevento	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Spezia	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Crotone	12	3	1	8	-10	10
18	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-8	9
19	Parma	12	1	5	6	-15	8
20	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	12	10	1	1	+12	31
2	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
3	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+12	25
4	Sassuolo	12	6	3	3	+3	21
5	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+10	20
6	Lazio	12	6	2	4	+2	20
7	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+4	19
8	Spezia	13	4	3	6	-7	15
9	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	14
10	Sampdoria	12	4	2	6	-3	14
11	Roma	11	4	2	5	-6	14
12	Benevento	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Torino	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Udinese	12	3	4	5	-5	13
15	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-7	9
18	Parma	12	1	4	7	-13	7
19	Fiorentina	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Crotone	12	0	2	10	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.