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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Swansea

S T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Luton

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 36/38 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

26%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

47%

71%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 8. · Luton 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	39	19	14	6	+26	71
2	Leeds	38	21	8	9	+24	71
3	Fulham	36	18	9	9	+13	63
4	Nott'm Forest	38	16	13	9	+10	61
5	Brentford	36	16	9	11	+28	57
6	Preston	38	16	9	13	+5	57
7	Blackburn	38	15	11	12	+9	56
8	Swansea	36	14	14	8	+9	56
9	Cardiff	37	14	14	9	+4	56
10	Bristol City	38	15	10	13	-4	55
11	Millwall	38	13	15	10	+3	54
12	Derby	38	14	12	12	+1	54
13	QPR	38	14	8	16	-5	50
14	Reading	38	13	10	15	+4	49
15	Sheffield Weds	38	13	10	15	-3	49
16	Birmingham	38	12	12	14	-9	48
17	Wigan	38	11	11	16	-10	44
18	Stoke	38	12	7	19	-6	43
19	Charlton	38	11	9	18	-9	42
20	Huddersfield	38	11	9	18	-15	42
21	Middlesbrough	38	9	14	15	-13	41
22	Hull	38	11	8	19	-15	41
23	Barnsley	38	9	10	19	-19	37
24	Luton	38	10	6	22	-28	36

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
2	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
3	Leeds	18	11	4	3	+13	37
4	Preston	19	11	3	5	+11	36
5	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
6	Cardiff	18	9	7	2	+11	34
7	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
8	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
9	Millwall	19	8	7	4	+6	31
10	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+7	29
11	QPR	20	8	5	7	+3	29
12	Nott'm Forest	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Stoke	19	8	3	8	+5	27
14	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	-5	27
15	Charlton	19	7	5	7	+2	26
16	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
17	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	-2	26
18	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
19	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
20	Reading	19	7	3	9	-1	24
21	Wigan	18	6	6	6	-4	24
22	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
23	Barnsley	19	5	7	7	-7	22
24	Hull	20	6	3	11	-7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	11	6	3	+13	39
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-2	29
5	Swansea	18	6	9	3	+2	27
6	Brentford	19	7	4	8	+9	25
7	Reading	19	6	7	6	+5	25
8	Fulham	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
10	Millwall	19	5	8	6	-3	23
11	Sheffield Weds	19	6	4	9	+2	22
12	Cardiff	19	5	7	7	-7	22
13	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-1	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	QPR	18	6	3	9	-8	21
16	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
17	Hull	18	5	5	8	-8	20
18	Derby	19	4	5	10	-14	17
19	Stoke	19	4	4	11	-11	16
20	Charlton	19	4	4	11	-11	16
21	Huddersfield	18	4	4	10	-12	16
22	Middlesbrough	18	3	6	9	-9	15
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	19	3	1	15	-28	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.