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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Derby

S T S T S

2–0

Full-time

Preston

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

67%

25%

Both score Ø 46%

67%

25%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 9. · Preston 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Bolton	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	West Brom	5	2	1	2	+5	7
7	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Wigan	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Derby	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Norwich	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Sheffield Weds	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Rotherham	4	1	0	3	-6	3
20	Birmingham	4	0	2	2	-2	2
21	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-5	2
23	Reading	4	0	1	3	-3	1
24	QPR	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+5	3
13	Derby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	1
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hull	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bolton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Wigan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Birmingham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Ipswich	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.