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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Cardiff

S S S S U

4–0

Full-time

Derby

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 37%

42%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

45%

25%

Both score Ø 42%

52%

31%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

27% Possession 73%

14 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 8. · Derby 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	33	21	7	5	+22	70
2	Watford	33	17	9	7	+19	60
3	Brentford	31	17	8	6	+25	59
4	Reading	33	16	6	11	+8	54
5	Bournemouth	32	14	10	8	+16	52
6	Swansea	28	15	7	6	+13	52
7	Barnsley	30	15	6	9	+6	51
8	Cardiff	33	14	8	11	+14	50
9	Middlesbrough	33	13	8	12	+3	47
10	Stoke	33	11	12	10	+1	45
11	Bristol City	33	14	3	16	-9	45
12	Millwall	33	9	16	8	+2	43
13	Preston	33	13	4	16	-5	43
14	Luton	32	11	8	13	-10	41
15	Blackburn	32	11	7	14	+8	40
16	Nott'm Forest	33	10	10	13	-4	40
17	QPR	31	10	10	11	-5	40
18	Derby	32	10	8	14	-8	38
19	Huddersfield	33	10	6	17	-12	36
20	Coventry	33	8	11	14	-14	35
21	Sheffield Weds	32	9	7	16	-15	34
22	Birmingham	33	8	10	15	-16	34
23	Rotherham	31	8	5	18	-9	29
24	Wycombe	32	5	8	19	-30	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Bournemouth	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Swansea	16	9	5	2	+10	32
5	Brentford	15	9	4	2	+15	31
6	Barnsley	15	9	3	3	+7	30
7	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
8	Middlesbrough	17	8	3	6	+2	27
9	Huddersfield	16	8	2	6	+7	26
10	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Luton	16	6	6	4	+1	24
12	Coventry	16	6	6	4	+0	24
13	Blackburn	16	6	5	5	+5	23
14	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
15	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
16	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
17	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	+8	21
18	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
19	Derby	17	5	5	7	-5	20
20	Millwall	16	3	10	3	+2	19
21	Preston	17	5	3	9	-2	18
22	Rotherham	16	4	3	9	-2	15
23	Wycombe	17	3	5	9	-11	14
24	Birmingham	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+9	35
2	Cardiff	17	8	5	4	+6	29
3	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
4	Reading	17	7	6	4	+4	27
5	Preston	16	8	1	7	-3	25
6	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
7	Birmingham	16	5	7	4	+0	22
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-1	22
9	Bristol City	17	7	1	9	-7	22
10	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
11	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
12	Middlesbrough	16	5	5	6	+1	20
13	Stoke	17	4	8	5	-2	20
14	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	4	8	-5	19
16	Derby	15	5	3	7	-3	18
17	QPR	16	4	6	6	-5	18
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
19	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Coventry	17	2	5	10	-14	11
22	Sheffield Weds	17	3	2	12	-18	11
23	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-19	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.