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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

T S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

31%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

26%

25%

Both score Ø 34%

29%

38%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	32	20	7	5	+20	67
2	Watford	32	17	9	6	+20	60
3	Brentford	30	16	8	6	+24	56
4	Swansea	27	15	7	5	+15	52
5	Reading	32	15	6	11	+7	51
6	Bournemouth	31	13	10	8	+15	49
7	Cardiff	32	14	7	11	+14	49
8	Barnsley	29	14	6	9	+5	48
9	Middlesbrough	32	13	7	12	+3	46
10	Stoke	32	11	12	9	+2	45
11	Millwall	32	9	16	7	+3	43
12	Bristol City	32	13	3	16	-11	42
13	QPR	30	10	10	10	-4	40
14	Preston	32	12	4	16	-8	40
15	Blackburn	31	11	6	14	+8	39
16	Nott'm Forest	32	10	9	13	-4	39
17	Luton	31	10	8	13	-11	38
18	Derby	31	10	7	14	-8	37
19	Huddersfield	32	10	6	16	-9	36
20	Coventry	32	8	10	14	-14	34
21	Sheffield Weds	31	9	7	15	-14	34
22	Birmingham	32	7	10	15	-17	31
23	Rotherham	30	8	5	17	-8	29
24	Wycombe	31	5	8	18	-28	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Swansea	15	9	5	1	+12	32
4	Bournemouth	16	9	3	4	+11	30
5	Brentford	14	8	4	2	+14	28
6	Barnsley	14	8	3	3	+6	27
7	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
8	Huddersfield	16	8	2	6	+7	26
9	Middlesbrough	16	8	2	6	+2	26
10	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Coventry	16	6	6	4	+0	24
12	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
13	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
14	Blackburn	15	6	4	5	+5	22
15	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
16	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	+8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
18	Luton	15	5	6	4	+0	21
19	Millwall	16	3	10	3	+2	19
20	Derby	16	5	4	7	-5	19
21	Rotherham	15	4	3	8	-1	15
22	Preston	16	4	3	9	-5	15
23	Wycombe	16	3	5	8	-9	14
24	Birmingham	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+7	32
2	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
3	Cardiff	16	8	4	4	+6	28
4	Preston	16	8	1	7	-3	25
5	Reading	16	6	6	4	+3	24
6	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+1	24
7	Birmingham	16	5	7	4	+0	22
8	Watford	16	5	7	4	+0	22
9	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
10	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
11	Middlesbrough	16	5	5	6	+1	20
12	Stoke	16	4	8	4	-1	20
13	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
14	Bristol City	16	6	1	9	-9	19
15	Derby	15	5	3	7	-3	18
16	QPR	15	4	6	5	-4	18
17	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-5	18
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
19	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Sheffield Weds	16	3	2	11	-17	11
22	Coventry	16	2	4	10	-14	10
23	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-16	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.