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Championship
Referee: J Gillett
Middlesbrough
T T S S T
1–1
Full-time
Cardiff
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Cardiff
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,0
This season — Championship · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 43%
41%
44%
Points per game
1,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
47%
47%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,6
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,1
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%
10 Shots 2
2 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
11 Corners 0
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Cardiff 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 32 20 7 5 +20 67
2 Watford 33 17 9 7 +19 60
3 Brentford 30 16 8 6 +24 56
4 Bournemouth 32 14 10 8 +16 52
5 Swansea 27 15 7 5 +15 52
6 Reading 32 15 6 11 +7 51
7 Cardiff 32 14 7 11 +14 49
8 Barnsley 29 14 6 9 +5 48
9 Middlesbrough 32 13 7 12 +3 46
10 Stoke 32 11 12 9 +2 45
11 Millwall 32 9 16 7 +3 43
12 Bristol City 32 13 3 16 -11 42
13 QPR 30 10 10 10 -4 40
14 Nott'm Forest 33 10 10 13 -4 40
15 Preston 32 12 4 16 -8 40
16 Blackburn 31 11 6 14 +8 39
17 Derby 32 10 8 14 -8 38
18 Luton 31 10 8 13 -11 38
19 Huddersfield 32 10 6 16 -9 36
20 Coventry 32 8 10 14 -14 34
21 Sheffield Weds 31 9 7 15 -14 34
22 Birmingham 32 7 10 15 -17 31
23 Rotherham 30 8 5 17 -8 29
24 Wycombe 31 5 8 18 -28 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Cardiff
30′
🟨 Will Vaulks
37′
S. Morrison 0–1
W. Vaulks
Half-time 0–1
57′
🟨 Joe Bennett
59′
🟨 Perry Ng
61′
🔁 S. Ojo
↦ J. Murphy
67′
🔁 J. Ralls
↦ W. Vaulks
67′
🔁 L. Bacuna
↦ H. Wilson
N. Kebano 🔁
↦ N. Mendez-Laing
71′
M. Johnson 🔁
↦ M. Bola
71′
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ D. Watmore
81′
D. Spence 🔁
↦ B. Assombalonga
81′
1–1 P. McNair
C. Akpom
82′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-3-3
1 M. Bettinelli G
4 G. Hall D
27 M. Bola D
2 A. Dijksteel D
16 J. Howson M
17 P. McNair M
18 D. Watmore F
6 D. Fry D
7 M. Tavernier M
19 N. Mendez-Laing F
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (9)
21 N. Kebano
3 M. Johnson
10 C. Akpom
29 D. Spence
33 H. Coulson
20 D. Fisher
22 G. Saville
5 Sam Morsy
13 J. Archer

Coach: N. Warnock

Cardiff

3-4-1-2
1 D. Phillips G
4 S. Morrison D
3 J. Bennett M
5 A. Flint D
16 C. Nelson D
38 P. Ng M
21 M. Pack M
6 W. Vaulks M
11 J. Murphy F
23 H. Wilson F
10 K. Moore F
Bench (9)
27 S. Ojo
8 J. Ralls
7 L. Bacuna
12 A. Smithies
32 J. Bagan
29 M. Harris
15 J. Williams
28 T. Sang
33 J. Hoilett

Coach: M. McCarthy

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,60
U ✓
3,16
B
2,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,26
U2,5 ✓
1,63
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Gillett · 178 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.