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2. Bundesliga

Referee: L Erbst

Dresden

S U U T U

3–1

Full-time

Darmstadt

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Darmstadt

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

22%

52%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

74%

61%

Both score Ø 68%

78%

57%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,22 xG 1,27

49% Possession 51%

19 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 8

18 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dresden 17. · Darmstadt 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	23	14	4	5	+13	+8.9	46
2	Darmstadt	23	12	9	2	+19	+7.3	45
3	Elversberg	23	13	5	5	+17	+2.0	44
4	Paderborn	23	13	4	6	+12	+10.7	43
5	Hannover	23	12	6	5	+11	+11.2	42
6	Kaiserslautern	23	11	4	8	+6	+1.2	37
7	Hertha	23	9	7	7	+4	-6.3	34
8	Nurnberg	23	8	6	9	-2	+1.5	30
9	Karlsruhe	23	8	6	9	-9	-15.0	30
10	Bochum	23	7	8	8	+3	+5.9	29
11	Bielefeld	23	7	6	10	+4	+0.7	27
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	23	7	4	12	-12	-2.7	25
13	Braunschweig	23	7	4	12	-14	-1.2	25
14	Holstein Kiel	23	6	6	11	-6	-12.9	24
15	Preußen Münster	23	5	8	10	-8	-7.9	23
16	Magdeburg	23	7	2	14	-10	+3.9	23
17	Dresden	23	5	7	11	-8	-0.1	22
18	Greuther Furth	23	6	4	13	-20	-7.1	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	12	9	3	0	+17	+8.7	30
2	Schalke 04	11	8	2	1	+8	+4.8	26
3	Kaiserslautern	12	8	1	3	+11	+2.7	25
4	Paderborn	12	8	1	3	+7	+8.4	25
5	Elversberg	11	6	4	1	+9	+1.4	22
6	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
7	Hannover	11	6	2	3	+4	+8.5	20
8	Karlsruhe	11	6	2	3	+2	-6.6	20
9	Bochum	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.0	19
10	Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+8	+7.5	17
11	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	-1.8	16
12	Preußen Münster	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.7	15
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.7	15
14	Braunschweig	12	4	3	5	-7	+2.2	15
15	Holstein Kiel	11	4	2	5	+1	-2.9	14
16	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	-9	-3.4	12
17	Dresden	11	2	3	6	-3	+3.8	9
18	Magdeburg	11	2	1	8	-8	+3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	12	7	1	4	+8	+0.5	22
2	Hannover	12	6	4	2	+7	+2.8	22
3	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+5	+4.0	20
4	Hertha	11	5	3	3	+6	-4.5	18
5	Paderborn	11	5	3	3	+5	+2.3	18
6	Magdeburg	12	5	1	6	-2	+0.4	16
7	Darmstadt	11	3	6	2	+2	-1.4	15
8	Dresden	12	3	4	5	-5	-3.8	13
9	Kaiserslautern	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.5	12
10	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
11	Bielefeld	12	2	4	6	-4	-6.8	10
12	Holstein Kiel	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.0	10
13	Braunschweig	11	3	1	7	-7	-3.4	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.0	10
15	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
16	Karlsruhe	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.4	10
17	Preußen Münster	11	2	2	7	-8	-6.2	8
18	Nurnberg	11	2	2	7	-8	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.