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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Stoke

U T S U T

2–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Middlesbrough 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Hull	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Watford	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Cardiff	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Preston	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Blackpool	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Rotherham	3	1	2	0	+4	5
9	Sunderland	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Birmingham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Swansea	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	QPR	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Wigan	3	0	3	0	+0	3
18	Huddersfield	4	1	0	3	-1	3
19	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
21	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Luton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
24	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Hull	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	QPR	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Sunderland	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Wigan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Preston	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Hull	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Sheffield United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Luton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Reading	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.