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Championship

Referee: D England

Burnley

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

57%

35%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

48%

39%

Both score Ø 57%

65%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

68% Possession 32%

10 Shots 2

4 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 1. · Birmingham 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	23	13	8	2	+22	47
2	Sheffield United	24	14	5	5	+20	47
3	Blackburn	24	13	0	11	+0	39
4	Watford	24	10	7	7	+6	37
5	Norwich	24	10	5	9	+4	35
6	Millwall	23	10	5	8	+3	35
7	QPR	24	10	5	9	+0	35
8	Reading	24	11	2	11	-6	35
9	Preston	24	9	7	8	-1	34
10	Middlesbrough	23	9	6	8	+6	33
11	Sunderland	23	9	6	8	+6	33
12	West Brom	24	8	8	8	+5	32
13	Birmingham	23	8	8	7	+4	32
14	Luton	22	8	8	6	+1	32
15	Swansea	24	8	8	8	-3	32
16	Coventry	22	8	6	8	+0	30
17	Stoke	24	8	6	10	-4	30
18	Bristol City	24	7	6	11	-3	27
19	Rotherham	24	6	9	9	-6	27
20	Cardiff	24	7	6	11	-8	27
21	Hull	24	7	6	11	-14	27
22	Blackpool	24	6	7	11	-9	25
23	Wigan	24	6	6	12	-14	24
24	Huddersfield	23	6	4	13	-9	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	12	8	4	0	+15	28
2	Reading	12	8	1	3	+6	25
3	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+14	24
4	Blackburn	11	8	0	3	+7	24
5	Millwall	11	7	2	2	+9	23
6	Watford	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
8	Norwich	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Birmingham	12	4	5	3	+4	17
10	Coventry	10	5	2	3	+4	17
11	QPR	11	5	2	4	+2	17
12	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+1	17
13	Rotherham	12	4	4	4	+3	16
14	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+3	16
15	Sunderland	12	4	4	4	+3	16
16	Cardiff	13	4	4	5	-1	16
17	Luton	11	3	6	2	+3	15
18	Bristol City	13	4	3	6	+0	15
19	Huddersfield	12	4	2	6	-2	14
20	Hull	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Preston	13	3	4	6	-6	13
22	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-3	12
23	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	-4	11
24	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	12	7	2	3	+6	23
2	Preston	11	6	3	2	+5	21
3	Burnley	11	5	4	2	+7	19
4	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
5	QPR	13	5	3	5	-2	18
6	Sunderland	11	5	2	4	+3	17
7	Watford	12	4	5	3	+1	17
8	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+0	17
9	Luton	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Wigan	12	4	3	5	-3	15
13	Swansea	13	3	6	4	-4	15
14	Blackburn	13	5	0	8	-7	15
15	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-5	14
16	Middlesbrough	11	4	1	6	+1	13
17	Coventry	12	3	4	5	-4	13
18	Hull	11	3	4	4	-5	13
19	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	12
20	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	12
21	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	11
22	Rotherham	12	2	5	5	-9	11
23	Reading	12	3	1	8	-12	10
24	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.