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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Stoke

S T T T S

1–2

Full-time

Birmingham

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

39%

28%

Both score Ø 39%

39%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

11 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 3

7 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Birmingham 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	10	8	2	+14	38
2	Sheffield United	19	10	5	4	+16	35
3	Blackburn	19	11	0	8	+4	33
4	QPR	18	9	4	5	+6	31
5	Preston	20	8	7	5	+0	31
6	Norwich	19	8	5	6	+6	29
7	Watford	18	8	5	5	+5	29
8	Swansea	18	8	4	6	-1	28
9	Millwall	18	8	3	7	+2	27
10	Reading	19	8	2	9	-6	26
11	Luton	17	6	7	4	+2	25
12	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	+3	24
13	Sunderland	17	6	5	6	+3	23
14	Rotherham	18	5	7	6	-1	22
15	Bristol City	19	6	4	9	-2	22
16	Blackpool	18	6	4	8	-4	22
17	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-4	22
18	Cardiff	18	6	3	9	-7	21
19	Middlesbrough	17	5	5	7	+0	20
20	Hull	18	6	2	10	-14	20
21	Wigan	18	5	4	9	-9	19
22	West Brom	18	3	8	7	-3	17
23	Coventry	15	4	5	6	-3	17
24	Huddersfield	17	4	3	10	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	10	6	4	0	+10	22
2	Blackburn	9	7	0	2	+9	21
3	Millwall	9	7	0	2	+9	21
4	Reading	10	6	1	3	+4	19
5	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+12	18
6	Norwich	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	QPR	8	5	2	1	+7	17
8	Watford	8	5	1	2	+6	16
9	Swansea	9	5	1	3	+2	16
10	Rotherham	9	4	3	2	+6	15
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+3	14
12	Cardiff	9	4	2	3	+1	14
13	Birmingham	9	3	4	2	+4	13
14	Middlesbrough	9	3	4	2	+1	13
15	Huddersfield	10	4	1	5	+0	13
16	Preston	10	3	4	3	-2	13
17	Hull	10	4	0	6	-8	12
18	Luton	9	2	5	2	+2	11
19	Sunderland	8	2	4	2	+1	10
20	Blackpool	8	3	1	4	+0	10
21	West Brom	10	2	4	4	-2	10
22	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-4	8
23	Coventry	6	2	1	3	-1	7
24	Wigan	10	1	3	6	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	10	5	3	2	+2	18
2	Sheffield United	10	5	2	3	+4	17
3	Burnley	10	4	4	2	+4	16
4	Stoke	10	4	2	4	+0	14
5	Luton	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	QPR	10	4	2	4	-1	14
7	Sunderland	9	4	1	4	+2	13
8	Wigan	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Watford	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Swansea	9	3	3	3	-3	12
11	Blackpool	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Blackburn	10	4	0	6	-5	12
13	Norwich	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Coventry	9	2	4	3	-2	10
16	Bristol City	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	Middlesbrough	8	2	1	5	-1	7
19	West Brom	8	1	4	3	-1	7
20	Rotherham	9	1	4	4	-7	7
21	Cardiff	9	2	1	6	-8	7
22	Reading	9	2	1	6	-10	7
23	Millwall	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Huddersfield	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.