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Championship

Referee: G Scott

Luton

S U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

4,5

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

This season — Championship · 40/42 matches

Win Ø 51%

50%

52%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

33%

69%

Both score Ø 54%

40%

67%

Average goals

2,1

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 4. · Middlesbrough 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	43	26	14	3	+47	92
2	Sheffield United	42	25	7	10	+29	82
3	Middlesbrough	42	22	8	12	+31	74
4	Luton	40	20	12	8	+17	72
5	Millwall	44	18	11	15	+7	65
6	Blackburn	43	19	8	16	-2	65
7	Sunderland	42	17	12	13	+10	63
8	West Brom	43	17	12	14	+8	63
9	Preston	44	17	12	15	-8	63
10	Coventry	42	16	14	12	+9	62
11	Norwich	44	17	11	16	+5	62
12	Swansea	44	17	11	16	+3	62
13	Watford	44	15	14	15	+1	59
14	Bristol City	44	14	14	16	-2	56
15	Hull	44	14	14	16	-10	56
16	Stoke	44	14	11	19	+4	53
17	Birmingham	44	14	11	19	-8	53
18	Reading	44	13	10	21	-20	49
19	QPR	44	12	11	21	-26	47
20	Rotherham	43	10	16	17	-11	46
21	Cardiff	43	12	10	21	-14	46
22	Huddersfield	43	11	11	21	-19	44
23	Wigan	44	10	13	21	-27	43
24	Blackpool	44	10	11	23	-24	41

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	15	6	1	+31	51
2	Middlesbrough	22	13	6	3	+27	45
3	Sheffield United	21	14	3	4	+23	45
4	Blackburn	21	13	3	5	+9	42
5	Millwall	22	11	6	5	+13	39
6	West Brom	22	10	7	5	+10	37
7	Reading	22	10	7	5	+7	37
8	Watford	22	10	6	6	+10	36
9	Luton	20	9	7	4	+9	34
10	Bristol City	22	9	7	6	+7	34
11	Swansea	22	10	4	8	+5	34
12	Coventry	20	9	6	5	+3	33
13	Hull	22	9	5	8	-3	32
14	Rotherham	21	8	6	7	+7	30
15	Norwich	22	8	5	9	+1	29
16	Sunderland	21	7	7	7	+0	28
17	Preston	22	7	7	8	-5	28
18	Birmingham	22	7	6	9	+1	27
19	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-2	27
20	Cardiff	22	6	7	9	-3	25
21	Blackpool	22	6	6	10	-5	24
22	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-1	23
23	QPR	22	6	5	11	-12	23
24	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-18	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	11	8	2	+16	41
2	Luton	20	11	5	4	+8	38
3	Sheffield United	21	11	4	6	+6	37
4	Sunderland	21	10	5	6	+10	35
5	Preston	22	10	5	7	-3	35
6	Norwich	22	9	6	7	+4	33
7	Stoke	22	8	6	8	+5	30
8	Coventry	22	7	8	7	+6	29
9	Middlesbrough	20	9	2	9	+4	29
10	Swansea	22	7	7	8	-2	28
11	West Brom	21	7	5	9	-2	26
12	Millwall	22	7	5	10	-6	26
13	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-9	26
14	Hull	22	5	9	8	-7	24
15	QPR	22	6	6	10	-14	24
16	Watford	22	5	8	9	-9	23
17	Blackburn	22	6	5	11	-11	23
18	Bristol City	22	5	7	10	-9	22
19	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-9	22
20	Cardiff	21	6	3	12	-11	21
21	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-17	17
22	Blackpool	22	4	5	13	-19	17
23	Rotherham	22	2	10	10	-18	16
24	Reading	22	3	3	16	-27	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.