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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Middlesbrough

T S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Luton

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

This season — Championship · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

60%

30%

Both score Ø 53%

65%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Middlesbrough 14. · Luton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	11	8	2	+17	41
2	Sheffield United	21	11	5	5	+16	38
3	Blackburn	22	12	0	10	-1	36
4	Preston	22	9	7	6	+1	34
5	Watford	21	9	6	6	+6	33
6	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+6	32
7	Reading	22	10	2	10	-6	32
8	QPR	21	9	4	8	+2	31
9	Millwall	21	9	4	8	+1	31
10	Swansea	21	8	7	6	-1	31
11	Sunderland	20	8	5	7	+6	29
12	Luton	20	7	8	5	+1	29
13	Birmingham	21	7	7	7	+3	28
14	Middlesbrough	20	7	6	7	+4	27
15	Bristol City	22	7	6	9	+0	27
16	Coventry	19	7	5	7	+1	26
17	Rotherham	22	6	8	8	-3	26
18	Stoke	21	7	4	10	-5	25
19	Cardiff	21	7	3	11	-8	24
20	Hull	21	7	3	11	-14	24
21	West Brom	20	5	8	7	+0	23
22	Wigan	21	6	5	10	-10	23
23	Blackpool	21	6	4	11	-9	22
24	Huddersfield	20	5	4	11	-7	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	11	7	4	0	+13	25
2	Blackburn	11	8	0	3	+7	24
3	Millwall	10	7	1	2	+9	22
4	Reading	11	7	1	3	+5	22
5	Watford	10	6	1	3	+7	19
6	Sheffield United	10	5	3	2	+11	18
7	Norwich	11	5	3	3	+6	18
8	QPR	10	5	2	3	+5	17
9	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Rotherham	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	15
12	Birmingham	11	3	5	3	+3	14
13	Middlesbrough	10	3	5	2	+1	14
14	Huddersfield	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	-1	14
16	Sunderland	10	3	4	3	+3	13
17	Coventry	8	4	1	3	+3	13
18	West Brom	11	3	4	4	+0	13
19	Preston	11	3	4	4	-4	13
20	Luton	10	2	6	2	+2	12
21	Hull	11	4	0	7	-9	12
22	Stoke	10	3	2	5	-3	11
23	Blackpool	10	3	1	6	-4	10
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	11	6	3	2	+5	21
2	Sheffield United	11	6	2	3	+5	20
3	Luton	10	5	2	3	-1	17
4	Burnley	10	4	4	2	+4	16
5	Sunderland	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Wigan	10	4	2	4	+0	14
7	Norwich	10	4	2	4	+0	14
8	Birmingham	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Watford	11	3	5	3	-1	14
10	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-2	14
11	Swansea	11	3	5	3	-3	14
12	QPR	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Middlesbrough	10	4	1	5	+3	13
14	Coventry	11	3	4	4	-2	13
15	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	12
16	Hull	10	3	3	4	-5	12
17	Blackpool	11	3	3	5	-5	12
18	Blackburn	11	4	0	7	-8	12
19	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-6	11
20	West Brom	9	2	4	3	+0	10
21	Cardiff	10	3	1	6	-7	10
22	Reading	11	3	1	7	-11	10
23	Millwall	11	2	3	6	-8	9
24	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.