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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Stoke

T U T T S

0–1

Full-time

Southampton

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

33%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

44%

89%

Both score Ø 61%

44%

78%

Average goals

2,8

3,9

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,6

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,66 xG 0,92

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 2

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Southampton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	10	8	1	1	+10	+5.6	25
2	Leicester	9	8	0	1	+12	+7.3	24
3	Preston	9	6	2	1	+3	-0.4	20
4	Sunderland	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.5	16
5	Norwich	9	5	1	3	+3	+2.0	16
6	Cardiff	10	5	1	4	+2	+1.5	16
7	Hull	10	4	4	2	+2	-1.1	16
8	Birmingham	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.8	15
9	Millwall	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.6	14
10	West Brom	9	3	4	2	+5	-2.6	13
11	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+4	+4.1	13
12	Southampton	9	4	1	4	-5	-1.5	13
13	Bristol City	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.6	12
14	Coventry	9	2	5	2	+3	+2.7	11
15	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	+1	-3.2	11
16	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-5	+4.6	11
17	Stoke	9	3	1	5	-3	+2.0	10
18	Blackburn	9	3	1	5	-7	-0.7	10
19	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-4.0	10
20	Swansea	9	2	3	4	+1	-0.3	9
21	Watford	9	2	3	4	+0	+0.7	9
22	QPR	9	2	2	5	-7	-5.9	8
23	Rotherham	9	1	2	6	-11	-10.6	5
24	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-12	-6.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+6	+5.1	12
2	Cardiff	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.1	12
3	Norwich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.5	12
4	Preston	5	4	0	1	+0	-2.1	12
5	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
6	Plymouth	5	3	0	2	+6	+0.1	9
7	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.2	9
8	Watford	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.9	8
9	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
10	Hull	5	1	4	0	+2	+0.9	7
11	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.8	7
12	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.4	7
13	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+4	+1.9	6
14	Coventry	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.3	6
15	Leeds	4	1	3	0	+3	+4.1	6
16	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.1	6
17	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.0	6
18	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-4	+0.2	6
19	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
20	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.0	5
21	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	+0	-5.1	5
22	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.2	5
23	QPR	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.2	1
24	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-6	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.1	15
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Sunderland	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
4	Hull	5	3	0	2	+0	-1.9	9
5	Preston	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
6	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.5	8
7	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
8	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
9	QPR	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.7	7
10	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+3	-1.6	6
11	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.1	6
12	Coventry	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.4	5
13	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.8	5
14	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
15	Swansea	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.1	4
16	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.9	4
17	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.7	4
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
19	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
20	Middlesbrough	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.8	4
21	Plymouth	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.3	2
22	Watford	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
23	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-11	-5.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.