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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Watford

T S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

61%

47%

Both score Ø 51%

58%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,58 xG 0,67

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

16 Free kicks against 3

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 12. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	36	22	10	4	+49	+44.7	76
2	Burnley	37	20	15	2	+39	+13.3	75
3	Sheffield United	34	22	6	6	+22	+12.9	72
4	Sunderland	35	19	11	5	+22	+14.0	68
5	West Brom	37	13	17	7	+14	+7.3	56
6	Coventry	36	16	7	13	+4	+17.5	55
7	Middlesbrough	37	15	8	14	+9	+12.9	53
8	Bristol City	35	13	14	8	+8	+7.8	53
9	Blackburn	36	15	7	14	+4	-0.8	52
10	Sheffield Weds	37	14	9	14	-5	-1.0	51
11	Norwich	37	12	13	12	+7	+9.6	49
12	Watford	36	14	7	15	-4	-7.8	49
13	Millwall	36	12	12	12	-1	+3.2	48
14	QPR	37	11	11	15	-6	-5.2	44
15	Preston	37	9	17	11	-6	-2.4	44
16	Swansea	36	12	8	16	-8	-1.5	44
17	Portsmouth	36	11	9	16	-13	-12.3	42
18	Oxford	36	9	12	15	-16	-20.6	39
19	Hull	36	9	10	17	-9	-5.7	37
20	Stoke	36	8	12	16	-14	-17.8	36
21	Cardiff	37	8	12	17	-21	-16.0	36
22	Derby	37	9	8	20	-12	-8.1	35
23	Luton	37	9	7	21	-26	-9.5	34
24	Plymouth	36	6	12	18	-37	-34.7	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	3	1	+36	+28.0	45
2	Burnley	19	10	9	0	+22	+8.9	39
3	Sunderland	18	11	6	1	+16	+12.6	39
4	Sheffield United	17	12	2	3	+12	+12.7	38
5	West Brom	18	9	7	2	+13	+8.3	34
6	Bristol City	17	9	6	2	+13	+10.2	33
7	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	+10	+5.8	33
8	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
9	Portsmouth	18	9	5	4	+11	+2.1	32
10	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+7	+7.1	32
11	Watford	18	10	2	6	+4	-0.7	32
12	Norwich	19	8	7	4	+17	+12.7	31
13	Oxford	18	8	5	5	+1	-4.3	29
14	Preston	18	6	10	2	+5	+5.1	28
15	Derby	19	8	3	8	+6	+1.7	27
16	Swansea	18	7	5	6	+6	+8.5	26
17	QPR	18	7	5	6	+3	+3.9	26
18	Luton	18	7	5	6	+1	+5.3	26
19	Millwall	18	7	4	7	+2	+5.8	25
20	Plymouth	18	6	7	5	-1	-6.7	25
21	Cardiff	19	7	3	9	-2	-2.2	24
22	Stoke	18	5	8	5	+1	-5.3	23
23	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	+0	+3.6	22
24	Hull	18	3	7	8	-4	+3.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+17	+4.4	36
2	Sheffield United	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.2	34
3	Leeds	18	8	7	3	+13	+16.7	31
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Sheffield Weds	19	9	2	8	-5	-4.6	29
6	Millwall	18	5	8	5	-3	-2.6	23
7	West Brom	19	4	10	5	+1	-1.1	22
8	Coventry	18	6	4	8	-5	+7.4	22
9	Middlesbrough	18	6	3	9	+2	+5.8	21
10	Hull	18	6	3	9	-5	-9.0	21
11	Bristol City	18	4	8	6	-5	-2.3	20
12	Blackburn	18	5	4	9	-6	-6.6	19
13	QPR	19	4	6	9	-9	-9.2	18
14	Norwich	18	4	6	8	-10	-3.1	18
15	Swansea	18	5	3	10	-14	-10.0	18
16	Watford	18	4	5	9	-8	-7.1	17
17	Preston	19	3	7	9	-11	-7.5	16
18	Stoke	18	3	4	11	-15	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	18	1	9	8	-19	-13.9	12
20	Oxford	18	1	7	10	-17	-16.2	10
21	Portsmouth	18	2	4	12	-24	-14.5	10
22	Derby	18	1	5	12	-18	-9.7	8
23	Luton	19	2	2	15	-27	-14.8	8
24	Plymouth	18	0	5	13	-36	-28.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.