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Championship
Referee: J Bell
Southampton
T T U T T
2–1
Full-time
Wrexham
S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Wrexham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,2
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

4,14 xG 1,88
75% Possession 25%
27 Shots 10
10 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Southampton Wrexham
22′
⚽ J. Windass 0–1
25′
🟨 Max Cleworth
Flynn Downes 🟨
32′
Half-time 0–1
54′
🔁 S. Smith
↦ K. Moore
M. Fernandes 🔁
↦ Y. Sugawara
60′
D. Downs 🔁
↦ A. Armstrong
60′
R. Manning 🔁
↦ Welington
72′
C. Archer 🔁
↦ F. Downes
72′
72′
🔁 R. Hardie
↦ J. Windass
73′
🔁 R. Longman
↦ R. Barnett
R. Stewart 🔁
↦ R. Edwards
80′
85′
🔁 J. McClean
↦ L. Cacace
1–1 R. Manning ⚽
90′
2–1 J. Stephens ⚽
D. Downs
90′
91′
🟨 James McClean
Cameron Archer 🟨
98′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Southampton

31 G. Bazunu G
12 R. Edwards D
5 J. Stephens D
17 J. Quarshie D
16 Y. Sugawara M
4 F. Downes M
24 S. Charles M
34 Welington M
26 R. Fraser F
46 J. Robinson F
9 A. Armstrong F
Bench (9)
1 A. McCarthy
15 N. Wood
3 R. Manning
27 K. Matsuki
18 M. Fernandes
22 B. Brereton Diaz
19 C. Archer
11 R. Stewart
42 D. Downs

Wrexham

3-5-2
21 D. Ward G
4 M. Cleworth D
6 C. Coady D
3 L. Brunt D
29 R. Barnett M
15 G. Dobson M
37 M. James M
27 L. O'Brien M
13 L. Cacace M
10 J. Windass F
19 K. Moore F
Bench (9)
1 A. Okonkwo
5 E. O'Connell
7 J. McClean
9 R. Hardie
12 G. Evans
28 S. Smith
38 E. Lee
45 H. Ashfield
47 R. Longman

Coach: Phil Parkinson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,71
🔒
U
3,74
🔒
B
4,77
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,89
🔒
U2,5
1,84
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Bell · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.