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Championship
Referee: E Bell
Stoke
S S T T U
3–1
Full-time
Derby
U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,2
1,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,09 xG 0,39
68% Possession 32%
12 Shots 3
7 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. May -25 Derby – Stoke 0–0 2. Nov -24 Stoke – Derby 2–1 30. Dec -21 Stoke – Derby 1–2 18. Sep -21 Derby – Stoke 2–1 20. Mar -21 Stoke – Derby 1–0

Match report

Stoke Derby
38′
🟨 Liam Thompson
Half-time 0–0
54′
🟨 Kayden Jackson
60′
⚽ C. Morris 0–1
C. Blackett-Taylor
68′
🔁 D. Ozoh
↦ K. Goudmijn
1–1 L. Baker ⚽
S. Thomas
70′
J. Donley 🔁
↦ M. Manhoef
74′
A. Phillips 🔁
↦ B. Lawal
74′
Ben Wilmot 🟨
78′
80′
🔁 A. Weimann
↦ C. Blackett-Taylor
T. Seko 🔁
↦ B. Pearson
84′
2–1 D. Mubama ⚽
T. Seko
90′
3–1 S. Thomas ⚽
J. Donley
90′
94′
🔁 D. Sanderson
↦ K. Jackson
R. Bozenik 🔁
↦ D. Mubama
100′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Stoke

4-2-3-1
1 V. Johansson G
22 J. Tchamadeu D
18 B. Lawal
16 B. Wilmot D
3 A. Cresswell D
4 B. Pearson M
8 L. Baker M
42 M. Manhoef M
10 J. Bae M
7 S. Thomas M
9 D. Mubama F
Bench (9)
11 R. Bozenik
12 T. Seko
13 J. Bonham
14 J. Donley
17 E. Bocat
23 B. Gibson
26 A. Phillips
56 F. Fawunmi
57 J. Mears

Coach: Mark Robins

Derby

4-4-2
1 J. Widell Zetterstrom G
24 R. Nyambe D
4 D. Batth D
5 M. Clarke D
3 C. Forsyth D
19 K. Jackson M
17 K. Goudmijn M
16 L. Thompson M
11 C. Blackett-Taylor M
9 C. Morris F
32 E. Adams F
Bench (9)
8 B. Osborn
14 A. Weimann
18 D. Ozoh
20 C. Elder
21 J. Rooney
28 D. Sanderson
31 J. Vickers
39 D. Brown
42 B. Clark

Coach: John Eustace

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,27
🔒
U
3,13
🔒
B
3,28
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,43
🔒
U2,5
1,52
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Bell · 19 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.