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Championship

Referee: Anthony Backhouse

Preston

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

46%

31%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

38%

31%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,71 xG 0,69

33% Possession 67%

4 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 6. · Swansea 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	9	4	1	+26	+16.4	31
2	Stoke	14	8	3	3	+12	-0.3	27
3	Middlesbrough	13	7	4	2	+5	+3.1	25
4	Millwall	14	7	3	4	-3	+1.4	24
5	Charlton	14	6	5	3	+5	-0.4	23
6	Preston	13	6	4	3	+5	+0.6	22
7	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+4	+1.0	22
8	Hull	14	6	4	4	+1	-8.9	22
9	Birmingham	14	6	3	5	+4	+8.8	21
10	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+7	+10.7	20
11	Derby	14	5	5	4	+0	-5.5	20
12	Watford	14	5	4	5	+1	+1.8	19
13	Leicester	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.8	18
14	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-3	-0.5	18
15	QPR	13	5	3	5	-5	-0.2	18
16	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.8	17
17	Swansea	13	4	5	4	+0	-5.1	17
18	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-4	+4.5	16
19	Oxford	14	3	4	7	-5	-3.0	13
20	Portsmouth	13	3	4	6	-7	-5.3	13
21	Southampton	12	2	5	5	-6	+3.9	11
22	Sheffield United	14	3	0	11	-15	-1.2	9
23	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-8	-4.1	8
24	Sheffield Weds	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	5	2	0	+15	+6.6	17
2	Watford	7	5	1	1	+6	+3.0	16
3	Ipswich	8	4	3	1	+6	+10.4	15
4	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+9	+9.4	14
5	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.2	14
6	Preston	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.7	14
7	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
8	Hull	7	4	2	1	+2	-3.0	14
9	Stoke	6	4	1	1	+7	+2.5	13
10	Derby	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.3	12
11	Millwall	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.6	12
12	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.3	11
13	Leicester	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.8	10
14	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.4	9
15	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
16	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
17	QPR	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.1	8
18	Portsmouth	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
19	Oxford	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.1	6
20	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-2	+4.8	5
21	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
22	Sheffield United	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-15	-7.3	1
24	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-7	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	4	2	1	+11	+9.8	14
2	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.8	14
3	Blackburn	7	4	0	3	+1	+3.9	12
4	Millwall	7	3	3	1	-1	+0.8	12
5	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.2	11
6	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+1	+2.7	11
7	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
8	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
9	West Brom	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.9	9
10	Wrexham	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.8	8
11	Preston	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
12	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	-3.6	8
13	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
14	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.1	8
15	Hull	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.8	8
16	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.1	8
17	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
18	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
19	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	+0	-2.9	6
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	-0.8	6
21	Portsmouth	6	1	3	2	-4	-4.2	6
22	Sheffield United	8	2	0	6	-8	-1.8	6
23	Ipswich	5	1	2	2	+1	+0.3	5
24	Watford	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.